# hOT OFF THE PRESSES



## Guest (May 12, 2008)

Explosion of New Product Inspite of Loss of One Primary Maker 

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While, we do not allow discussion about other makers on this forum, I do want to comment on the tremendous growth of product in G regardless of a certain major initiators temporary lack of product. The remaining makers have made enough new product to offset the loss of the one dozens of times over. The hobbyists in G have a huge selection of new product being offered and the hobby offers tremendous choices to all regardless of the era selected. 

To say that the absence of one is reflecting on the growth of the hobby of G45 in general is far from the truth. The market is healthy and stimulating to all the hobbyists in the marketplace. 

This missive will be locked as I do not want a major discussion here on the topic, but I do want to refute the comments from a few I heard at the National Garden Railway convention this year in Phoenix. 

All the best, 
Lewis Polk 

SOUNDS LIKE SOMEONE IS GETTING DEFENSIVE?/DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/whistling.gif


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## TonyWalsham (Jan 2, 2008)

He is hardly likely to say the market is sliding downhill, now is he? 
Whether it is or not? 

Our capitalistic way of life is based on confidence. 
If'n you take away that confidence who knows what will happen? 
So all is well. Dontcha know? 

....and, never mind the quality. Feel the width. 

Or in our case the Wow!!! factor.


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By TonyWalsham on 05/12/2008 4:50 PM
....and, never mind the quality. Feel the width. 





/DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/hehe.gif 
That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time! 

Keith


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## altterrain (Jan 2, 2008)

It just goes to show we're willing to bash any and all of the manufacturers. 

-Brian


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## DennisB (Jan 2, 2008)

Definitely has a career in stand up comedy. Life is funny.


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## East Broad Top (Dec 29, 2007)

Personally, I think Lewis is right on the mark, at least relative to the hobby absorbing the loss of three particular letters from the alphabet. Others have stepped in to fill the voids; not product-for-product, but certainly in general. As existing stock of particular three-letter standbys dwindles, I think you'll see other manufacturers' existing similar products begin to gain steam. 

On the other hand, $3.50/gallon gas is impacting all of us, and our hobby money is getting tighter and tighter. No one's buying "one of everything" anymore. I didn't see "feeding frenzy" buying at the convention the way I've seen in years past, and some of the dealers I talked to said it wasn't a very lucrative show for them. I think everyone is being much more controlled in their spending, and looking for the best deals to stretch their dollar. 

But on the whole,I think Lewis's thoughts are correct. If you flip through a magazine today and compare what's available now to what was just 5 years ago, there's no comparison. Today's hobbyists have far more choices. Those three letters are gone, but there are plenty of others in the alphabet. 

Later, 

K


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## Duncan (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Cougar Rock Rail on 05/12/2008 4:58 PM
Posted By TonyWalsham on 05/12/2008 4:50 PM 
....and, never mind the quality. Feel the width. 


" border=0>" border=0>" border=0>" border=0>/DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/hehe.gif" border=0> 
That's the funniest thing I've read in a long time! 
Keith




At least Tony didn't say "girth" or "diameter"... /DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/laugh.gif 
That would made a mess.../DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/w00t.gif


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## lownote (Jan 3, 2008)

? 
....and, never mind the quality. Feel the width. 
Or in our case the Wow!!! factor. 





And the snark. There are a bunch of things about this hobby I don't get, like the weird battery/track conflict and the way people get over-invested in one scale or another. I don't understand the backstory of Lewis' post or these responses, and don't care to


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## blackburn49 (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By lownote on 05/12/2008 6:11 PM

And the snark. There are a bunch of things about this hobby I don't get, like the weird battery/track conflict and the way people get over-invested in one scale or another. I don't understand the backstory of Lewis' post or these responses, and don't care to


I am definitely with you on that sentiment.


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## Bucksco (Jan 4, 2008)

Never thought I would ever post this acronym anywhere but here goes: 

ROFLMAO /DesktopModules/NTForums/themes/mls/emoticons/w00t.gif


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

I agree with Kevin and Lewis. There are new products every year from Aristo. They seem to be the only ones really putting out multiple new products anymore. We had a lot of repaints from LGB. What was the last NEW product from USA trains (I guess we could call a reissue of the old MDC Ore hopper new)? Aristo seems to be offering a new locomotive or two a year. The GP-40 and E8 were last year's releases. This coming year it appears to be a 2-8-0, PCC streetcar, and some small live steam engines (maybe). 

So, I think Lewis is perfectly in line (on his own website no less) to toot his own horn and promote his product. I'm glad they are looking for ways of making things more affordable, like eliminating metal wheels from their freight cars. Sure, I am going to spend another $15 on metal wheels, but I don't have to right away. In talking with George Adams about track sales, he indicated that they had the highest volume of track sales last year (and that was before LGB went out). So... putting myself in Lewis' shoes, I'd be doing exactly what he is doing. Especially considering that LGB once sued Aristo over track, but lost. 

I don't think LGB was much competetion for Aristo these last two or three years anyway. Most folks are in to the big diesels and steam, and LGB just didn't move fast enough to keep up.


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

There are a bunch of things about this hobby I don't get, like the weird battery/track conflict and the way people get over-invested in one scale or another.


It's just an internet thing. NPR was discussing the rise of "social networks" yesterday and ours is no different. 

The 'conflict' and the 'over-invested' are just visible manifestations of people's enthusiasm: "Look, I made it work without track power - you gotta try it!" and "Wow, these Fn3/G/1:29th [delete as appropriate] trains look great - you gotta try them!" 

I don't understand the backstory of Lewis' post or these responses 


Yeah, I had trouble for the first few posts. There are quite a few manufacturers with 3 letters in their name. But if you had been around 10 years ago, there was only one: LGB.


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## Bucksco (Jan 4, 2008)

More new products is not the answer to the problem manufacturer's are facing. The big issue is growing the number of customers to buy all of these grand new products. 
Go to a large scale train show and look around. You usually see the same faces (and less of them as time goes by). 
The manufacurers need to spend more time and money maeketing to new customers than trying to make new products for the existing ones. Just my opinion.


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

I was certain LGB was having issues well before the insolvency, namely the inroads in sales made by Bachmann and A/C & USA into what had been their virtual monopoly, the addition of the low cost Forney and the Genesis were indicators that someone in the company finaly "got it" and were looking to compete directly in this new market. Now that Marklin has control, this will not happen, IMHO, LGB will revert to being a high cost low supply beautique brand in this country. All the signs are there if one cares to look. 

Lewis is correct about the plethora of supply, but the withering ecomony and rising cost of living will definetly have an effect on this hobby, and any manufacturer that does not address this WILL suffer financially, it really doesnt help when a manufacturer artificially raises prices, simply because they feel the can. The market responds accordingly,higher prices, less sales, lower profit. 

This hobby is the PosterChild for discretionary spending, if pushed too far 98% of us will simply stop or severly curtail making any new purchases and just live with what we got, newbies will likely drift to other scales, On30 is very tempting for its size and price to newbies. Maybe we'll see the beginnings of a serious push into On30 in the garden if prices get really wacky in G. 

Jack is correct that you need to grow the hobby by getting newbies in the door, but sad to say, a faltering economy might hinder this, I will be interesting to see the attendance records for the BTS, or maybe not necessary the attenance, but what sales figures the vendors show. I know I'm saving my Sheckles for the show.


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

Jack, 

What you say makes sense, and maybe that's why there were more LGB starter sets than just about anything else. I think Aristo tends to jump past the starter set, to a certain degree. Without seeing LGB's numbers, I would suspect that starter sets were the biggest seller, after track... 

Mark


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

I think it's just time we get some innovation back into the hobby. Rather than spend so much time and effort concentrating on bringing production costs down using offshore labour, and perpetuating a price race to the bottom, the manufacturers need to spend more on in-house R&D on products that will attract and hold people's interest in this hobby. For example, I would suggest they put more effort into operating accessories that use modern controls. Operating cranes, gravel handling, intermodal shipping/unloading, coal tippers etc. etc. Interactive machines that make it fun to actually 'do' things with each other are what's needed. With DCC it's a piece of cake to make these operate remotely with the kinds of controllers young kids love. My six year old learned how to use my Massoth Navigator in about two minutes, and he can unload my RhB gravel hoppers via conveyor, shunt the loaded cars around etc. etc. And when his friends come over, what do they want to do? It used to be Nintendo, now it's to race the propeller cars around the track--each with their own LGB loco remotes. So I think if the manufacturers want the hobby to grow, they have to stop watching each other and start making others watch them. 

Keith


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## lownote (Jan 3, 2008)

Posted By Bucksco on 05/13/2008 7:54 AM
More new products is not the answer to the problem manufacturer's are facing. The big issue is growing the number of customers to buy all of these grand new products. 
Go to a large scale train show and look around. You usually see the same faces (and less of them as time goes by). 
The manufacurers need to spend more time and money maeketing to new customers than trying to make new products for the existing ones. Just my opinion. 





Ok, that's true in any industry. You need to make it easy for new customers. So how is Aristo not doing what you're saying they should do? They make a lot of products at close to entry level. They offer a complete range of just about everything--houses, figures, track, electrical gear, RC gear. Their onboard receivers are plug and play. They have a battery car now. They offer starter sets. None of it is perfect, quality control is sometimes shaky, but in terms of making it easy for e newbie aristo is the shizzo. Compare their range and price to anybody else. They make their stuff in a scale that seems to be calculated to outrage rivet counters but attract novice customers. So are you saying they should stop developing new locos and start marketing more? Well why single them out? They do more than anyone else, as far as I can see. Aristo's hardly perfect, but why pick on the company that's doing the most outreach? 

That's sort of what I don't get about this post. I guess the argument is that since LGB died, people are less interested in general? I'm still not sure how that's aristo's fault, if it's true. I'd be more inclined to say that attendance at shows is declining because of the internet 

And if there's declining sales, it's hard to sort out marketing failure vs recession in general


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## Tom Leaton (Apr 26, 2008)

The factual content of Mr. P's missive is, in my view, not unfounded. 

I recall walking into a well known hobby dealer a year ago, looking at the dwindling red box inventory, and wondering if they could continue to function without products from Nurnberg. Now we see that they can. 

As to the letter's tone, I think that it's reasonable, given that the writer was speaking personally, posting it on his own forum, and in context of a discussion about his own product line. 

cheers


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## thekollector (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By East Broad Top on 05/12/2008 5:49 PM 
Personally, I think Lewis is right on the mark, at least relative to the hobby absorbing the loss of three particular letters from the alphabet. Others have stepped in to fill the voids; not product-for-product, but certainly in general. As existing stock of particular three-letter standbys dwindles, I think you'll see other manufacturers' existing similar products begin to gain steam. 
No one's buying "one of everything" anymore. 
Today's hobbyists have far more choices. 
Later, 
K

I can only look at this from my own perspective. I had already purchased everything I need for my indoor Saxon layout. My RhB collection is awaiting the start of an outdoor layout. I really don't see any of the expanding new products attracting me. I know my interests may be in the minority, but I know LGB made a lot of RhB items so there must be others in the same boat. "One of everything" LGB collecting was on the wane twenty years ago and was gone by fifteen years ago. Simply too big a product line. 
Suppose the EBT evangelists bicycle up to the door and nearly convince me to go eastern narrow gauge. A quick look at the newest items brings the Accucraft 2-8-2 at $3130. Lump in around nine of the beautiful Yoder hoppers for a total of $3825. and I have made a good start. 
But wait, I have more choices. Yep, that same money will buy me Baumann's beautiful 2&1/2 inch scale, 7&1/2 inch gauge Geminder mine locomotive. I would love to ride my trains! So, if I sell part of my LGB collection, I've made a good start on a real outdoor train. I'm 90% of the way toward making that decision. 
Jack B. 
P.S. for Markoles: I've never understood the difference. Say Aristo-Craft make a new boxcar and batches twenty paint versions and LGB made a new boxcar and then offered two new paint versions over the next nine years. 
Some how Aristo gets credit for twenty "new" items and LGB got credit for 18 "re-paints". The end product seems the same to me?


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

JAck B, 

"P.S. for Markoles: I've never understood the difference. Say Aristo-Craft make a new boxcar and batches twenty paint versions and LGB made a new boxcar and then offered two new paint versions over the next nine years. 
Some how Aristo gets credit for twenty "new" items and LGB got credit for 18 "re-paints". The end product seems the same to me?" 

I agree, repaints are not the same as new releases and I wasn't considering the repaints as new releases. The new offerings I was referring to were not just the same old FA, RS-3, U-25-B, 4-6-2, 0-4-0 or 2-4-2 from the 1990s repainted and upgraded. Starting with the SD-45, continuing with the Dash 9, 2-8-2 (OK, technically a half-new release), 2-8-8-2, live steam 2-8-2, E8, and continuing with the GP-40, there's been a new aristo locomotive about once a year. Regarding the boxcars, they have now released 4 different kinds of boxcars, all based on US standard gauge prototypes. I wouldn't call them repaints or duplicates, even though some use the same detail parts. 

Mark


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## Semper Vaporo (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Cougar Rock Rail on 05/13/2008 8:53 AM
I think it's just time we get some innovation back into the hobby. Rather than spend so much time and effort concentrating on bringing production costs down using offshore labour, and perpetuating a price race to the bottom, the manufacturers need to spend more on in-house R&D on products that will attract and hold people's interest in this hobby. For example, I would suggest they put more effort into operating accessories that use modern controls. Operating cranes, gravel handling, intermodal shipping/unloading, coal tippers etc. etc. Interactive machines that make it fun to actually 'do' things with each other are what's needed. With DCC it's a piece of cake to make these operate remotely with the kinds of controllers young kids love. My six year old learned how to use my Massoth Navigator in about two minutes, and he can unload my RhB gravel hoppers via conveyor, shunt the loaded cars around etc. etc. And when his friends come over, what do they want to do? It used to be Nintendo, now it's to race the propeller cars around the track--each with their own LGB loco remotes. So I think if the manufacturers want the hobby to grow, they have to stop watching each other and start making others watch them. 
Keith




Your last phrase is where it is at! There have been way too many "me too" products. One company creates a new item and the others then come out with the same thing. 

Just like corporations need to diversify, so that if one innovation fails, the others will keep the company viable, the hobby needs to diversify. It is a small market and niche's are easily saturated at the expense of all the companies not selling enough to recoup the entry expenses and the hobbyist not interested in that particular niche having to be without product for their particular interest. 

Of course, that all has to be weighed against "competition" keeping the prices down so we can afford our toys.


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## Allan W. Miller (Jan 2, 2008)

I very much like and respect Lewis, and appreciate what he has done for Large Scale over the years, but I don't quite share the level of optimism he expressed (even though I certainly understand his reasoning for expressing things in the way he did). 

My personal belief, as kind of an "outsider looking in" at the present time, is that the loss of LGB in the Large Scale arena will have a fairly profound impact on the overall health and growth of this segment of the hobby in the years to come. 

Certainly the needs of current hobbyists are being well served by the various manufacturers who are still in the arena, even though the active hobbyists are never really satisfied with all that's available. But none of the manufacturers have achieved, or have even come close to achieving, the broader public visibility that has long been associated with LGB and only LGB. 

My guess is the loss of LGB (and I do view it as a loss) goes beyond a loss of "product" alone. I think we'll see the real implications and impact further down the road.


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## thekollector (Jan 2, 2008)

Allen, 

I think your assessment is very fair and accurate. 

Jack B.


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## Bucksco (Jan 4, 2008)

But unfortunately won't be popular .


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

Adding to what Allan has said, I believe LGB had (& Maerklin still has) the best engineers and staff in the business, and that gives me hope for the future. At the end of the day ownership changes but what really matters is the staff. I'm hoping that even if the current ownership unravels, they will end up working for someone like the good Dr. at Piko who obviously knows how to handle people and is committed to the hobby. The potential is out there for innovation...the good people with the ideas and experience just need the right leadership and environment to make things take off. 

Keith


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## Bucksco (Jan 4, 2008)

Keith, 
I don't think Maerklin is all that stable in regrard to production. This is an excerpt from the European Train Enthusiasts newsletter from April. It is a summary of articles that appeared in the German business press. 
It doesn't paint a very pretty picture: 

Trouble at MÃ¤rklin? 
GÃ–PPINGEN, Feb. 23rd â€" Interesting, if not 
disturbing, news about MÃ¤rklin is being circulated in 
the German press. It seems that a head company 
developer/designer, Klaus Kern, is in a legal fight 
with MÃ¤rklin because, after being employed by 
MÃ¤rklin for 23 years, he was put in a taxicab on 
February 22nd and told never to set foot on the 
property again. 
Neither Kern nor MÃ¤rklin have commented about the 
reasons for the legal action. However several reports 
have emerged where is it seems that discussions about 
quality deficiencies Kern had over the Internet with a 
customer led to his dismissal. The customer had 
complained in an email of signs of metal deformation 
and buckling in a MÃ¤rklin locomotive. Kern assumed 
that the lok was counterfeit because he interpreted the 
problem, as seen in the customer-supplied pictures, as 
a defect in the metal. 
Later it was confirmed that it was indeed a MÃ¤rklin 
KÃ¶f (some samples of #36805 and #36808 seem to be 
more affected than other KÃ¶f) and now the 
responsibility for the metal fatigue, also known as 
"Zinkpest", has fallen back on MÃ¤rklin's shoulders. It 
is speculated that the defects are like to be blamed on 
production outsourcing from GÃ¶ppingen to Eastern 
Europe and China. 
Despite this report, responding to press inquiries 
MÃ¤rklin director Axel Dietz claims that according to 
its internal reports that there has been no increase in 
quality problems at the firm. 
Nevertheless, adding to its woes, MÃ¤rklin has also 
had troubles with its marketing department. Delivery 
of its 2007 Christmas catalog was delayed to just 
shortly before the holidays. The blunder irked its 
dealers, especially as the bulk of most model train 
sales occur in the Christmas season. 
â€œSuch a blooper is inexcusable.' said one MÃ¤rklin 
dealer. 'How can we sell the products if we can't show 
them to the customers?' 
Two years after being taken over by Kingsbridge, 
MÃ¤rklin is still on shaky rails. According to Dietz, 
MÃ¤rklin is reporting a loss for 2007 similar to the 
previous year â€" â‚¬ 13.7 million â€" despite sales volume 
remaining stable at â‚¬126 million, only because of 
recent acquisitions. 
Between Dietz and Ulrich Wlecke, a manager from 
the restructuring and consulting firm Alix, the 
atmosphere is ice-cold. With Kingsbridge removing 
Alix, and an increasing number of new corporate 
â€œconsultantsâ€� at MÃ¤rklin, one worker was overhead 
lamenting that, â€œNow we have new consultants, but 
no head developer. How will that help us?â€�


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

You better scoop him before someone else does, Jack! A gift like that doesn't come along often.  

Keith


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## East Broad Top (Dec 29, 2007)

...My personal belief, as kind of an "outsider looking in" at the present time, is that the loss of LGB in the Large Scale arena will have a fairly profound impact on the overall health and growth of this segment of the hobby in the years to come. ...My guess is the loss of LGB (and I do view it as a loss) goes beyond a loss of "product" alone. I think we'll see the real implications and impact further down the road. 

I disagree. I'm not saying LGB's demise isn't bad--the loss of any player, let alone a significant one, isn't good for the hobby. But I simply don't give LGB that much influence in the hobby in general that cannot (and will not) be picked up by any of the other manufacturers--or perhaps a new or just emerging manufacturer. Nature abhors a vacuum. We've already seen LGB's contractors (Massoth, etc.) step out from behind the shadows. Piko's track may very well come from the same supplier who did LGB's, at the very least, it's virtually identical in construction and robustness. And let's not forget that LGB isn't "dead." Its products will again be hitting store shelves, albeit not the full, old product line. That will also take time. 

What is lost right now is a durability benchmark. No one has managed to attain the reputation for longevity that LGB has achieved. That's not to say other manufacturers' products may not be equally robust, just that they aren't recognized as such. Unfortunately, I don't think any manufacturer--no matter how good--will be able to achieve that reputation simply because none have been around as long, nor purchased by such a large percentage of the market. Whether that's ultimately a negative on the hobby, I'm not sure. 

Newcomers 10 years from now won't have that old frame of reference, so they'll judge durability and reliability solely on what's available. It's like appliances. My parents lament the loss of appliances that last more than 10 years. Today's younger generation moves on average every 8 years or so, so it's not something that comes into play. We'll likely move before the fridge kicks the bucket, and the next owners won't like the colors anyway. 

I give LGB a lot of credit, and they're pretty much singlehandedly responsible for the hobby today. But they're like the first tree in a forest. Other trees have begun to grow, and they will thrive now that they receive the light that used to be blocked by the older tree. 

Later, 

K


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## thekollector (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By East Broad Top on 05/13/2008 7:47 PM

Piko's track may very well come from the same supplier who did LGB's, at the very least, it's virtually identical in construction and robustness. 
No one has managed to attain the reputation for longevity that LGB has achieved. That's not to say other manufacturers' products may not be equally robust, just that they aren't recognized as such. Unfortunately, I don't think any manufacturer--no matter how good--will be able to achieve that reputation simply because none have been around as long, nor purchased by such a large percentage of the market. Whether that's ultimately a negative on the hobby, I'm not sure. 
Later, 
K




Kevin are you referring to the rail? Lehmann outsourced rail, but produced all the plastic ties from their own dies. The tie injectors ran around the clock and track production was continuous rather than batch. That is the process Märklin is trying to restore. Piko outsources the same rail as Lehmann did, but produces their own dies and ties for in-house track production. I can't guarantee that won't shift now that they own their own factory in China. 

I simply feel there will be a negative impact for a long time. Longer for me personally. 

Jack B.


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## Ltotis (Jan 3, 2008)

I was going to go a little deeper into European/RHB rolling stock and engines. I decided to stop and sell most of what I have and keep select pieces. I am going to concentrate on Pennsy, Amtrak, NH, and to a much lesser degree B&M and the MBTA. Part of this reason is the depth of product that I have wanted that are now available from other vendors. The PCC will be very high on my list next year. 
Personally I feel that LGB will never get back to where it was in the hobby even if Marklin does all the right things. Here are my reasons. 1. The longer they are out of the US market the memories of what they were will fade. 2. Once a customer finds that there are options it will be damn hard to get them back. 3. No one speaking for them in the US anymore. Communications only seems to be through Depesche and that's only preachng to a choir some of whom are looking at their options. 4. Quality is up at other manufacturers and so is the types of products that they are selling. 
LAO


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## blackburn49 (Jan 2, 2008)

. ...My guess is the loss of LGB (and I do view it as a loss) goes beyond a loss of "product" alone. I think we'll see the real implications and impact further down the road.

I disagree. I'm not saying LGB's demise isn't bad--the loss of any player, let alone a significant one, isn't good for the hobby. But I simply don't give LGB that much influence in the hobby in general that cannot (and will not) be picked up by any of the other manufacturers--or perhaps a new or just emerging manufacturer. Nature abhors a vacuum. We've already seen LGB's contractors (Massoth, etc.) step out from behind the shadows . . .


I never understood all the fuss about the potential loss of LGB (or its corporate successor) as a manufacturer of a specific product line. If it turns out that LGB/Marklin is gone for good, newcomers to the hobby will be none-the-wiser. There will be LGB products around for years, but these pieces will eventually become nothing more than a curiosity from an older era. In the end, I don't see how the likely loss of LGB as a product line will make any real difference to the hobby at all. Other manufacturers will eventually step in to meet the demand, such as it is. Sure, things will never be the same. What's new there?  Isn't that just the nature of things?


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## Allan W. Miller (Jan 2, 2008)

The point I was attempting to make earlier is that LGB alone--and I do mean pretty much alone--popularized Large Scale (in this country at least) and did a whole lot to increase public exposure to this segment of the hobby over a good number of years. We're not seeing anything like that now to any great extent, and you're not likely to see much of it in the future. That will, in my opinion and combined with other economic indicators, have a significant impact on the hobby in the long run. Yes, those already in the hobby are having their needs met (even though they are never satisfied), but GROWTH of this segment of the hobby depends on far more than taking care of those already actively involved. 

I could, of course, be wrong about this, and I actually hope that I am wrong. But I'm fairly confident that four or five years from now I will be able to re-post this and follow-up with "I told you so." We shall see!


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## lownote (Jan 3, 2008)

I'm sorry LGB is gone. They made some excellent detailed stuff and they made cute starter stuff. I loved the red boxes and they had a distinct feel of quality. They invented the whole genre, more or less. But there's not an economist in the world who would argue that the demise of one company kills a whole activity. Remember Studebaker? Remember the Hudson? Heck, remember American motors, or Pontiac? You could argue that Ford invented the mass produced car market--if Ford vanished nobody would argue that car driving would die. 
It's actually really hard for me to imagine that LGB/Marklin won't start sending product to the US sooner or later. It's a huge market, relatively speaking: they have the molds and the tooling. It just makes sense. Or sell the tooling and the molds to someone else. But then I keep expecting Lionel to reissue the trains too. 

to your point, if I were Aristo I'd be pushing hard to bring out a Thomas the Tank Engine line. Something that runs decently and operates realistically. If little kids around here like trains, it's almost entirely because of Thomas. Imagine a 
"thomas" line where you can take the faces off and have reasonably realistic models of British steam


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## Allan W. Miller (Jan 2, 2008)

"if I were Aristo I'd be pushing hard to bring out a Thomas the Tank Engine line." 
--------------------------- 
They can't. Lionel holds the license for the Thomas line in Large Scale and O gauge. Bachmann has it for HO in the U.S.


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## George Adams (Jan 2, 2008)

I think the loss of LGB in the US is big, but not so much for the product as for the name. There are still many people who know nothing about large scale trains but LGBs name. They look at any garden railway and say "oh thats LGB" even if its USA or Aristo trains that are running on it. As far as product I am not sure LGB was going where the hobby is expanding. Large scale is constantly evolving and that is a good and bad thing. There are plenty of people who want "cute" reliable trains to run at top speed in the garden, but there are also just as many who want reliable "scale" trains. Unfortunately a manufacturer has to appeal to both to survive. As far as Thomas or any other "name" trains are concerned the licensing usually requires x number of units and y numbers of dollars. Most of these numbers are totally unrealistic for large scale. Very few people understand just how small large scale is. The same goes for main stream advertising. One add in a major non hobby magazine would equal the advertising budget of some companies for several years of hobby publications. The hobby needs to grow, and it will, but how to speed that process up, I don't know. 

George


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## East Broad Top (Dec 29, 2007)

...We're not seeing anything like that now to any great extent, and you're not likely to see much of it in the future...

I can't buy that argument. For one reason, the LGB products are not going away. They'll--eventually--be back on the shelves with "Marklin" stamped somewhere on the box in addition to the familiar LGB logo. They'll say "Made in Hungary" instead of "Made in Germany," but the last word of that phrase is not nearly as important as the first two. They're being made, and the brand will again be in play. 

But more to the point, I'd argue that we are seeing a good deal of outreach from the other manufacturers. Ever see LGB at Sam's Club? It's not just bargain-hunting large-scalers buying those Bachmann sets every Christmas. How many of them turn into garden railroaders? Who knows, but I'd bet it's no different than the number of Lionel's Christmas-set customers who become model railroaders. And let's face it--when's the last time you saw _any_ brand of large-scale train for sale at the local garden center where it's a more targeted market? Aristo-Craft used to sponsor the train under the National Christmas Tree every year. (They may still, I don't know.) That doesn't even begin to tap into the vast network of clubs and organizations that put on public large scale train displays for charity and at special events. Jack Lynch's recent project at Epcot is a prime example. If I recall the photos correctly, there's a lot of Piko stuff on that display. Locally, the Denver GRS has a permanent garden railroad at the Colorado Railroad Museum. Paul Busse is still finding plenty of opportunities for his fantastic displays. I believe the Washington DC group still has trains running around the National Arboretum every Christmas. I think outreach is stronger today than it ever has been, it's just not necessarily brand-specific outreach. 

What's going to happen 5 years down the road? Who knows? With gas prices going the way they are, I'll have to sell my live steamers just to fill my gas tank. There are simply too many other economic factors at play that will ultimately dictate the fate of this--or any--hobby. I just think that saying any potential downturn in the hobby is a direct result of one company going belly-up puts an undeserved sense of importance on that particular company. That's not diminishing their importance to the initial growth of the hobby in the least. No one's arguing that point. But there are plenty of others who have--and will--pick up where they left off. 

Later, 

K


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Kevin makes a valid point in that the current cost of living impacts will likely have a far greater impact on our hobbies, than the demise of one manufacturer. 

I suspect if the cost of living keeps going up, we can expet to see a decline in purchases across the board. How this decline affects the manufacturers remains to be seen. Maybe no new major investments in new product till the econ turns around, till then its repaint heaven.


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