# Aristo changes corporate planning from 10 years to 6 months at a time



## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

Uhh... better buy whatever you want that Aristo makes today, might be gone in 6 months!

This is scary stuff: *http://www.aristocraft.c...trong>**

Maybe it's time to have someone running the company with a plan?

Greg*


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## Scottychaos (Jan 2, 2008)

I dont understand what this means.. 
how does this mean products will disappear in 6 months? 
sounds like its just related to planning..products can still stick around for 10 years, or until they sell out.. 

"planning in 6 month groupings" does not equal "products disappear after 6 months".. 
Greg, what did you get out the statement? 
im not seeing it.. 

Scot


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

He's made statements before that he can no longer make 10 year plans. It's very concerning when the president of a company makes this kind of statement, especially when it take about 6 years to make a new loco.. 

Greg


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

I'm surprised ANY company using modern MBA business tactics has any planning longer than 1 year. most businesses today are quarterly based and the sky is falling if they get two bad quarters in a row. Lewis is getting up there in age, he can't do this forever, and I dont know who is planning to fill his shoes once he decides to step down, also given the craptastic economy, I'm sure their current phylosophy is one of shear survival, IOWs no major investments in anything new until the econ is strong enough to support it. Who knows where the economy will be in 1, 3 or 5 years from now. Theres still to much uncertainty so switching to a 6 month outlook may simply be the prudent thing to do right now.


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

That all goes to reinforce my opening statement, since they are not planning into the future, they may run out of something now and not produce it later, and the startup and execution is WAY longer than 6 months. 

So, if you have been holding off buying something, buy it now. 

Your comments have just reinforced my opening statement, which was meant just as it was typed, literally. For example, I will buy my RDC-3, which I was planning to hold off for a year or so, because I really don't want/need it right now. But with this uncertainty, I will buy it now just in case it's not available again for several years. 

Greg


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## aceinspp (Jan 2, 2008)

According to what I've read the state of the economy will enter a 2nd stage of bad growth and last for another 3 to 5 years. Now take that for what it's worth but I'll tell you one thing you all better listen. Maybe it's time for the boy to join the ranks of us retired folks and let the younger set worry about what happens 5 years down the road. Later RJD


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## livesteam53 (Jan 4, 2008)

Re-read it again. 
What I believe Lewis is saying he will reveal the changes that the Revo is going to be doing 6 months from now. Many changes in the works.


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

This is not the first time Aristo has mentioned that they will not do long range planning. If it was, I would not comment. 

There's more posts on the Aristo site mentioning no more 10 year planning. 

When a pattern develops, using the same words by the same person, then I start listening. 

Greg


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## livesteam53 (Jan 4, 2008)

The Market is changing and if it was your business can you say "I know what to make for the next 10 years". ?? 

I doubt that anyone can do that. The market has changed and planing for smaller runs of product makes perfect sense to me. 

Money is tight and I don't think any business can afford to sit on products for years like they could have years ago.


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## George Schreyer (Jan 16, 2009)

What he can do for six months out is only to ORDER more production for existing product.


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## norman (Jan 6, 2008)

Hi Guys: 

I believe you are misreading Lewis's statement. 

" I'm too old to make 10 year plans and now think in 6 month groupings. " 

" I'm too old " means at my age I could be DEAD in 6 months, one never knows when I will pop off self realism attitude. 

Lewis did not make any reference to the economy, so I believe he is simply realistically referring to his own mortality as in Lewis can personally only plan in 6 month segments as he doesn't know if he will personally still be walking the planet in another six months. 

So maybe we should all try to be nice to Lewis, try to help him avoid depression and to not dwell on the limited years he has left ! 

Think of how the elders in your own families are coping. Lewis is no different. 



Norman


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

Yes, it's nice to be nice to Lewis. 

I also want to buy Aristo trains. Someone should be doing some planning that will allow products to be built. 6 months is not a long enough window. 

So, I'm concerned the company has no plan long enough to even deliver the Consolidation (in the works for 6 years). 

I'm concerned that there may not be parts to support my Aristo products. 

My business looked to the coming recession, and planned for the worst. Our company is still going. Many of our competitors went broke. 

Planning is everything, and it's even MORE important to plan when times are tough, when a mistake can be fatal to a company. 

What if Kader buys Aristo? Ouch. 

Regards, Greg


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## Scottychaos (Jan 2, 2008)

I think perhaps a random comment, by an elderly man, concerning one specific product, is being taken far too out of context. 
This one comment doesn't necessarily reflect what is actually happening with Aristo's future planning.. 
I would place this in the "rumor and innuendo" category.. 

Scot


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## Johnn (Jan 5, 2010)

I think Lewis should be gone and Scott should begin, Just the way of things.
Johnn

Out with the older, and in with younger.


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

Scot: 

What part of my previous post was confusing? 

"This is not the first time Aristo has mentioned that they will not do long range planning. If it was, I would not comment. 

There's more posts on the Aristo site mentioning no more 10 year planning. 

When a pattern develops, using the same words by the same person, then I start listening. 

Greg" 

It's not a random statement. It's not the first time. You should read the Aristo forum, I do. 

You need to read, not just jump in at the end because Greg is being mean to poor old Lewis... Greg wants to buy Aristo products. Greg is concerned. There are several statements repeating the no longer looking 10 years out... that would be OK if at least the outlook was long enough to make something new. 6 months can't make new products. 

Greg


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## John J (Dec 29, 2007)

I read it as HE is not going to make plans beyond on 6 months. It doesn't say that nobody else is going to make plans. Where did HE become plural? 

I am getting old and I don't buy green bananas. That don't mean I am not going to continue with my layout. Maybe My Nephew will continue with my RR 

Who knows what lurks in the minds of a CEO?

I don't think the Shadow even knows.









PS I do tire of this pouncing on Aristo


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## Paulus (May 31, 2008)

Just to be clear: this is the first time I see the Aristo forum so I can't speak of the past, only for this what I read now. 

There are suggestions, assumptions and conclusions written over here on MLS but I don't see any reply in the Aristo forum to ask Lewis what he really mean by this statement. If it worries some, why don't ask him? I guess that's why he posted it on that forum; to get some reactions? 

Also; _"We're excited here about the planning that is already in the product development stages with samples to arrive on all new projects before the end of the year and deliveries early next year"_ does not sound like a fading company to me... 

Just my 2 cents... 

Paul


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

Yep, and I'm tired of excuses from Aristo, where promised dates are missed by years. 

So it's even more concerning when the man who rules with an iron fist, the president, can only see out 6 months. 

So I have no right to make these comments? I need to drink more kool aid? 

Does anyone seriously think someone else in that company is in charge? Asking asking questions like that get you banned from the Aristo forum. I was given a choice several years ago to stay or go, but if I stayed, I could never say anything negative about Aristo again. I left and told them I was not going to candy coat the truth any more. (as I did when I was on the forum). 

I have over 5,000 posts on the Aristo forum, and until I started pointing out weaknesses in certain Aristo products (to hopefully get them fixed) I was the little engineer darling. 

Funny though, most of the things I pointed out have now been fixed... WR frogs, the consisting on the new Revo, inserts for the #6 switches, better back to back spacing on the newer diesels. 

You gotta know the history. You have to read the forum. You can't just sit around and make comments if you have not read the things that are being said there. 

All I'm saying is that it scares the heck out of me when the president is starting to say (not just once) that there is no more long range planning. 

If he feels he cannot do planning because of his age (read the forum, that's what he has said several times), then maybe he needs others to help run that part of the company. No leadership and no planning is NOT GOOD. 

Greg


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## Allan W. Miller (Jan 2, 2008)

Not sure why you have this personal vendetta against Lewis and/or Aristo, Greg, but you sure do know how to take the man's post entirely out of context and make it into something that it isn't. 

Yes, Lewis is the head honcho at Aristo, but it isn't a one-man operation by any means. As it is with any other business of its size, there are others in responsible positions who can competently and efficiently lead the firm forward well into the future. 

How about giving up on your personal grudge and incessant efforts to create--and this is creative--mis-information regarding something you quite obviously know nothing about?


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## Trains (Jan 2, 2008)

*Well said Allan!!*


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

Greg,

I agree, 10 year planning is good, but not realistic for most businesses. But, the post that Lewis made is about the REVO. As a technology 'guru' I expected better of you. 6 months is like 10 years in technology. Looking at Lewis' post, it is about the REVO and that technology plan, not rolling stock, locomotives, structures, or anything else. Ten years ago is an eternity for technology stuff, you know that. 

Lewis is in his 70s, not elderly or frail. 

I've talked to Scott about his plans for Aristo, and he's planning to continue the company. Or was, last March.


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## John J (Dec 29, 2007)

I thought that Aristo was a sponsor here at one time. I think it is posts like this that drove them away


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Greg does have a point, I'm still waiting for the Connie, wasnt that supposed to come out 4 years ago. Since it was first announced Bmann managed to put out both the Mallet and the K which were much larger machines, so either they are looking at long term production issues in China, a weakening and more fragmented LS market, fewer LS modelers able to afford engines with a price point close to $1K


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

Not a personal vendetta. 

You have shown the same ignorance as others in realizing that this is not the only time Aristo has said no more long range planning. 

It is a one man operation in terms of corporate direction. Most small companies are. 

And I know more than you do, obviously, since I have more information and I have bothered to read more than just this post, but all the posts on the Aristo forum. 

Your refusal to just take the facts and and go hmm is not surprising... kool aid. 

Greg 

p.s. this will be my final post here, since it's disintegrated to name calling (and I can't wait to see it over on the Aristo forum). The people who have open minds, will be going hmm.... the people who are mixing up another gallon of kool aid will respond as above.


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## Allan W. Miller (Jan 2, 2008)

There may be some ignorance shown, Greg, but a good deal of it appears to be coming from you. I really find it hard to believe that you could be so naive about business practices and that you refuse to accept the comment Lewis made in its proper context--the Revolution system and short-term plans related to possible enhancements. Should be quite evident to just about anyone. 

I did get a chuckle out of your "I know more than you do" declaration. 
- - - - - - - - - - 

And John J. wrote: 
"I thought that Aristo was a sponsor here at one time. I think it is posts like this that drove them away." 

No question about it, John, and who could possibly blame them (or any other manufacturer for that matter)?


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## Steve Stockham (Jan 2, 2008)

I don't purchase Aristo products (with the exception of their brass track) so I really don't follow these threads that much but I would like to step in for a moment and comment if I might. I read Greg's original post and then this whole thread just now and I agree with him! Re-read his original post and then read his responses to everyone. He is concerned that Aristocraft _may _be sacrificing long term planning (i.e. 10 year) for short term (i.e. 6 months) and he cautions us to consider moving up_ our_ plans to accomodate a _possible_ shortfall on Aristocraft's part! Greg's reasoning is sound and his advice is prudent. Does Greg have a "vendetta?" I would say rather that he keeps an eye on the products that he is interested in. He has a proven track record so I am willing to take him at his word. Lewis _does_ rule Aristo with an iron hand. When a president of a company makes multiple statements like "...no longer adhere to a 10 year plan" and "...going to a 6 month plan" it causes concern! The_ prudent_ thing for Lewis to have done would have been to have clarified his statement! Something like "Those long term projects that are under development will continue as planned" but he didn't do that! Greg's advice is sound. Far be it from me to tell anybody what to do but you might want to at least consider his advice.


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## eheading (Jan 5, 2008)

Greg, which of the Aristo Forums is this post under? I could have sworn I saw it last night with no comments to it on that forum, but today I can't find it. As I recall the above referenced post was made on Sept. 17, but darned if I can find it now.

Ed


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## Del Tapparo (Jan 4, 2008)

I don't really care what Aristo does personally, but isn't the Aristo post discussing a PUBLIC SEMINAR to be given by L. Polk? Why would any company give a seminar on their 10 year plan? To give the competition a leg up? I read this as him willing to share what is happening in the next 6 months with the public. It is just another a marketing campaign! Nothing more.


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## aceinspp (Jan 2, 2008)

The thread is listed under the fall east coast show. Yep no takers for posting a comment. later RJD


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## bottino (Feb 7, 2008)

OK My turn. The thread is under the General topics forum. For those of you who have never attended the East Coast show, besides everything else it includes seminars on various aspects of large scale railroading. Even Marty has been there and given really cool talks about train photography. If you read the post carefully, It is ONLY about his plans for the Revolution train control system. That's it. Nothing else. As Mark above has already pointed out, this is as far as anyone needs to go planning with this kind of technology. He has probably listened to the feedback he has gotten and is planning on future applications for the unit. 
Lets lighten up a bit. 

OR if we believe what has been written in this thread, we should sell all our trains and get the **** out of model railroading, Fast. LGB is gone and now Aristo. Soon there won't be any more manufacturers of Large Scale Trains. 
Paul


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## blueregal (Jan 3, 2008)

I would put my money on Greg until proven differently, he is pretty much straightforward, and upfront about everything, and heads and shoulders above most of the rest of us as to almost anything concerning computers, and trains, and electronics. But PLEASE this is another thread that nothing now positive can come of it, and needs to be locked before anymore personal attacks come about for anybody! Regal


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## East Broad Top (Dec 29, 2007)

Perhaps no one's posted a comment on the Aristo board because they know what Lewis is getting at; and that it's not some ominous change in philosophy? Maybe there's some basis to a communication pattern that's not as well-worded as it could be, or perhaps it is an attempt at humor in a media where intonation cannot be determined. I've been in contact with Lewis on and off for a while about various products he's submitted to the magazine for review. I've not seen or heard anything which would remotely lead me to believe Aristo doesn't have long-term plans. Lewis has been successful in the hobby business for a very long time. You don't achieve that thinking only in 6-month blocks, and I've no reason to believe that's what he's really doing. There are plans there, but like most other manufacturers, they're kept close to the vest relative to public disclosure. (Similar to Bachmann. They have plans two, three years down the road for products, but you'll never get Lee Riley to talk about anything beyond what's on the display table in front of him--goodness knows we've all tried! They keep future products _very_ quiet.) 

Perhaps we might stand to go back and read Marc's editorial a few issues back about rumors? When in doubt, ask the source first. 

Later, 

K


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## BodsRailRoad (Jul 26, 2008)

Here is a quote from Lewis explaining what he meant by his statement about the 10 year plan. He was referring to the fact that the computer/electronics industry is moving at warp speed these days so it is no longer viable or smart to plan more than 6 months ahead as far as R+D goes as far as the Revo system is concerned. 

" Dear Ed,

I don't feel or act old and enjoy every moment of the job I do. However, electronics is moving at an astonishing rate and I'm gasping with the possibilities when applied to model trains. In 6 months the possibilities will look different and I have to plan for what is available today.

It's thinking outside of the box and encompassing technology that wasn't meant for or designed for model trains. Team Aristo is doing it, but we can't see beyond the 6 month time frame. 

I just saw a video of Dell's Duo Slate for example and who had heard about Pad's and Slates one year ago? We stay in touch with a bunch of college r/f engineers and others all under 30. It's the only way to stay ahead of the game!

Come and hear what I'll be saying if you're within a day's drive of the show. The Revolution is a reality, successful and it's only a year old. 

All the best,
Lewis"



Ron


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## eheading (Jan 5, 2008)

Whew, another crisis at Ariso resolved!!!!









Ed


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## TonyWalsham (Jan 2, 2008)

Maybe technology is evolving at such a speed the REVOLUTION is already out of date.


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

I just read his 'bulletin' and it seems to me he's just talking specifically about his inability to plan for where electronics are going beyond about six months, that's all. 
You can't expect Aristo to be able to plan too far ahead when they are at the mercy of someone else actually building their gear. Anyone in the electronics game is constantly scrambling as technology evolves and enables new devices. Aristo seems to be all over the map on electronics because they chose their own direction and now they're playing catchup trying to make the Revo act like DCC. Contrast that with Piko, who has their own factories, and LGB/Maerklin, who are busily moving ahead with their production out of hungary--in fact it seems to me they do more long term planning under insolvency than the rest put together. 

Keith


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## Del Tapparo (Jan 4, 2008)

Shad - Perhaps we should have a new forum called: "MBA" or "Business" or "Be a CEO for Day" or "How to run a business". We (myself included) seem to have more interest in the business gossip, than we do in trains. This is a great site, but the longer I am here, the closer it gets to a "social" web site, than a trains web site. But It's all fun.


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## aceinspp (Jan 2, 2008)

Yep he saw so much activity here that he decided to put the post to the general forum. Yep this new stuff gets out of date quick. I think it's moving faster than he is







. Later RJD


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## Torby (Jan 2, 2008)

If you will re-read, you'll notice that Lewis is concentrating on short term planning while Scott, who seems to be the heir-apparent, deals with long term planning. 

Now shut up and sit down. 

Too blunt? Ok, Moderate your rhetoric and take your seat.


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## Esppe Pete (Jan 21, 2008)

Well I'm glad all that nothing got resolved for 4 pages of posts. What everyone seamed to miss in Lewis's Post was that they were still going into the "O" scale market! You don't need an MBA to realize that means LESS capital for G or 1/29 scale product in the next 6 months or 10 years! 
My concern is focused on the 1/29scale market and it is apparent that it has transformed. The cost for our basic rolling stock have gone up drastically, the availability of new product has gone down following basic supply/demand curve. We live in the age of Ebay where old product is very easy to obtain so re running old molds has less return for mfgs. yet that is what we seam to be getting. Saddly, AML is makin 40ft box and stock cars, I got plenty of those, and I bet I'm not the only one! 
It seams we have moved to the period of smaller runs, higher costs, less product. It is the retailers who are hurting the most as there is no volume to pay the rent and marketing. 
So with all of the talk here on planning, what do you all think of the future of G scale and what do you thing the Mfgs should be doing to bridge the depression (No I do not belive yesterdays economic report of the reccession being over a year ago). What would you buy at higher costs or what would you buy multiple road numbers of?


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## BodsRailRoad (Jul 26, 2008)

Posted By Esppe Pete on 21 Sep 2010 10:17 AM 
Well I'm glad all that nothing got resolved for 4 pages of posts. What everyone seamed to miss in Lewis's Post was that they were still going into the "O" scale market! You don't need an MBA to realize that means LESS capital for G or 1/29 scale product in the next 6 months or 10 years! ........ 

Wrong again;

*All the best,
**Lewis Polk

P.S. All investment in O Gauge has been done by Walter Matuch of RMT and we are using all of our development funds for G Gauge.
* 


I wish that everyone would just clam down and stop all the Aristo bashing. The hobby is a better place because they are in it. 
Is Aristo perfect, no, but then who is? They do a good job of providing a wide variety of good products at reasonable prices. They have very good customer service and are very accessible to their customers. 
If they ever do leave the hobby it will be very bad for all of us as there would be less competition and higher prices.

Ron


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## Ward H (Jan 5, 2008)

Read Lewis's posts so I hopped over here to see what was said. Yep, most took Lewis's posts as I did. Torby's post was the clearest


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## East Broad Top (Dec 29, 2007)

Gentlemen, since y'all can't seem to keep the personal attacks off the page, I'm shuttin' it down. 

Later, 

K


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