# Survey says....



## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Interested in the results of the Aster Hobby USA Challenger survey. The Aster Hobby USA website was updated as of Apr.6 with the deadline of March 23 still in the post. So, is it is or is it ain't the next Aster US model? Ross, or Jeff or one of the dealers might be in contact with Hans and could cue those of us with an interest as to the status (no, I do not have a wad of money burning a hole in my pocket) given the deadline has past.


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## Chris Scott (Jan 2, 2008)

Does this help? 




Aster USA Website


4/6/2010 

The Challenger survey has been concluded and we are happy to announce that because of your reservation commitments the project is receiving a green light. Negotiations with Union Pacific Railroad are now in progress to obtain the required licensing agreement. for model manufacturers.


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Chris
Thanks, when I last looked at the site it did not display the conclusive information. Congratulations to Hans and Aster in their choice as they seem to have picked a winner based on the go ahead!


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## Dan Pantages (Jan 2, 2008)

[No message]


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## Dan Pantages (Jan 2, 2008)

I don't understand why it was blank the first time. 

I believe that it is a winner; I have sold more of this model than any other single Aster model. From what I understand, if you do not get you name on the list at the beginning then you will not get one, unless someone drops out before they are delivered. They are only going to make enough to fill the orders put in at the start of the project. So if you are on the fence get your deposit to your favorite dealer ASAP. :>) That’s me smiling; I would be happy to be your favorite Dealer.


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

It's those Aster 'snobs' again!!! 
Anyone who can put down a deposit on a loco that there isn't a price for (and doesn't have to ask) must be an Aster Snob. 
I'm still going to wait until Accucraft make theirs, then I can buy two and might get one usable loco out of them and it may still be less expensive!!! 
Also too bad it doesn't come in a Canadian livery! 
All the best, 
David Leech, Delta, Canada


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## tacfoley (Jan 3, 2008)

Posted By David Leech on 08 Apr 2010 07:47 PM 
It's those Aster 'snobs' again!!! 
Anyone who can put down a deposit on a loco that there isn't a price for (and doesn't have to ask) must be an Aster Snob. 
I'm still going to wait until Accucraft make theirs, then I can buy two and might get one usable loco out of them and it may still be less expensive!!! 
Also too bad it doesn't come in a Canadian livery! 
All the best, 
David Leech, Delta, Canada 


Wouldn't take much to do a paint-job on the greyhound version to add a few maroon bits...









tac
www.ovgrs.org


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

David, perhaps your Canadian ISP is not allowing you to view everything on the web site, but from the start the price has ben posted as $12500.00 US, for the kit. 
I'm sure Obama will degrade our IS down here in the near future......


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## RP3 (Jan 5, 2008)

We all seem to have fun with the "Aster Snob" reference, but this time as we joke around we may be missing an important issue. I think this point has already been made before, but it bears repeating. The old way of doing business -- at least in the expected economic climate for the foreseeable future -- is dead. The former process of an Aster Importer commissioning an engine, fronting the development expenses, delivering a production model and then standing back and hoping for orders just is too risky now -- and that's especially true with a more expensive articulated model. Sure, someone may be able to develop small models without upfront deposits, but I think we are going to see this new process of requiring advance, non-refundable deposits before production again and again. In saying this, I do applaud Andrew for continuing to follow the old process with the MT-5, and the UK may have a large enough affluent customer base to support the old system; but I think that going forward this is going to become the exception and not the rule. 

Academics call this kind of change a paradigm shift. It may be slow to take hold, but I think it's here to stay and if we want to acquire future Aster models then we better be prepared to operate in this environment. The change can be unnerving as we pay our deposits and wait for the final price to be announced, but it can also be beneficial to those people who make the commitment and end up acquiring much more limited production models that are very likely to rise in value after the models arrive. It might also encourage some brave souls to become speculators and buy an extra model or two for later resale. 

For those of you who think I'm crazy, take a look at Accucraft. They announce lots of model projects but only really act on those that generate sufficient advance reservations. Admittedly, they only require advance deposits on the more expensive models and final prices are committed, but this is a move in the same direction I've described. And members of this forum have acted on their own to get Accucraft to follow through on certain desirable models. 

So we, the customers are slowly becoming the risk-takers in this market and our willingness to commit our $$ resources will decide what comes to market. That's one man's opinion. Comments? 

Ross Schlabach


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By RP3 on 09 Apr 2010 07:05 AM 
We all seem to have fun with the "Aster Snob" reference, but this time as we joke around we may be missing an important issue. I think this point has already been made before, but it bears repeating. The old way of doing business -- at least in the expected economic climate for the foreseeable future -- is dead. The former process of an Aster Importer commissioning an engine, fronting the development expenses, delivering a production model and then standing back and hoping for orders just is too risky now -- and that's especially true with a more expensive articulated model. Sure, someone may be able to develop small models without upfront deposits, but I think we are going to see this new process of requiring advance, non-refundable deposits before production again and again. In saying this, I do applaud Andrew for continuing to follow the old process with the MT-5, and the UK may have a large enough affluent customer base to support the old system; but I think that going forward this is going to become the exception and not the rule. 

Academics call this kind of change a paradigm shift. It may be slow to take hold, but I think it's here to stay and if we want to acquire future Aster models then we better be prepared to operate in this environment. The change can be unnerving as we pay our deposits and wait for the final price to be announced, but it can also be beneficial to those people who make the commitment and end up acquiring much more limited production models that are very likely to rise in value after the models arrive. It might also encourage some brave souls to become speculators and buy an extra model or two for later resale. 

For those of you who think I'm crazy, take a look at Accucraft. They announce lots of model projects but only really act on those that generate sufficient advance reservations. Admittedly, they only require advance deposits on the more expensive models and final prices are committed, but this is a move in the same direction I've described. And members of this forum have acted on their own to get Accucraft to follow through on certain desirable models. 

So we, the customers are slowly becoming the risk-takers in this market and our willingness to commit our $$ resources will decide what comes to market. That's one man's opinion. Comments? 

Ross Schlabach 



Ross 

There is one aspect of "becoming risk-takers" and "speculators" for the purpose of resale/profit based on return of investment not discussed in your overview: marketplace. Given the baby boomers are aging and retiring, younger work force having less opportunity, combined with less youth coming into the hobby I am not sure that there will be a strong long term market for increase toy values. Someone having the resources to purchase an additional Challenger might find a short term gain. In this economic turmoil I am not sure that potential purchasers of additional units are going to be willing to give up cash reserves when there is lots of uncertainty.

Several aspects bring this to mind as far as investment in "toys" vs other ways to become rich:

1) Not long ago an original Lionel Blue Comet set (Standard gauge )would sell on the market for $20K depending on condition. Now, the price is not near that level
2) The are several Allegheny locomotives purchased for resale with profit in mind still in the owner hands

3) Return on investment for a profit margin dictates a) scarcity b) mint condition c) worth- only what someone else is willing to pay


Lastly,if the market had that much potential for investment return then many more companies would be producing of gauge one and those of us in the hobby would become stockholders. As to the business model and deposits, it is certainly a sign that might signal much less in terms offerings both in the model and number of units available.


IMHO toy trains are best in offering one a wonderful hobby experience more so than an investment return.


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## John Allman (Jan 2, 2008)

I would rather have 2 challengers than 1 Allegheny! Which may well be why the Alleghenies are still for sale all these years later. 

Just sayin'.


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By David Leech on 08 Apr 2010 07:47 PM 
It's those Aster 'snobs' again!!! 
Anyone who can put down a deposit on a loco that there isn't a price for (and doesn't have to ask) must be an Aster Snob. 
I'm still going to wait until Accucraft make theirs, then I can buy two and might get one usable loco out of them and it may still be less expensive!!! 
Also too bad it doesn't come in a Canadian livery! 
All the best, 
David Leech, Delta, Canada 

David
At one point in time early in the hobby that was what was done for a representation of CP steam power: parts, two for one and less expensive-


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By JEFF RUNGE on 09 Apr 2010 06:39 AM 
David, perhaps your Canadian ISP is not allowing you to view everything on the web site, but from the start the price has ben posted as $12500.00 US, for the kit. 
I'm sure Obama will degrade our IS down here in the near future......


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By JEFF RUNGE on 09 Apr 2010 06:39 AM 
David, perhaps your Canadian ISP is not allowing you to view everything on the web site, but from the start the price has ben posted as $12500.00 US, for the kit. 
I'm sure Obama will degrade our IS down here in the near future...... 

ISP service in the future

To be determine but it looks like the internet access as we know it will change and cost more.


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## aopagary (Jun 30, 2008)

two points...

there is a difference between a non-refundable and a non-retractable deposit. i was under the impression that the Aster deal was the latter. if the model did not generate enough response, the $1000 deposit would be returned, but if the model was a 'go', you could not change your mind at that point and ask for your deposit back.


secondly, i'm not 100% certain the decision has been made to go with the passenger livery. if i interpreted Han's statement correctly, that decision will be made at a later date, perhaps mid-May and will be based on demand. i'm wondering what the people who wanted one of each will do if the gray paint will not be an option. i would think two different numbers might be a compromise.


cheers...gary


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Gary
Nothing I read indicates that there will be only one version:
The Challenger survey has concluded. We are happy to announce that because of sufficient reservation commitments the project is receiving a green light. Negotiations with Union Pacific Railroad in Omaha NE are now in progress to obtain the trademark licensing permit required for model manufacturers. 

I would like word on the boiler....hoping for dual fuel


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## aopagary (Jun 30, 2008)

Posted By Charles on 09 Apr 2010 02:24 PM 
Gary
Nothing I read indicates that there will be only one version:


the information i posted was paraphrasing an email i received from Hans. his note implied that there will definitely be the UP #3985, black and an undecorated black version, but the gray livery was still TBD. all i was saying was that if they don't offer the gray, whether it would be that difficult to at least offer two different road numbers for the Aster junkies who plunked down $2k.


cheers...gary

(Aster junkie club member)


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## vmsysprog (Jul 2, 2008)

With regards to the trademark licensing. I thought this was taken care of within the last 7 to 10 years by MTH (Mikes Train House). There was a big stink back then by UP regarding trademark issues, etc. The problem was at a point that a number of manufacturers could not issue anything with UP related markings. Mike Wolfe supposedly worked out a deal with UP that the trade mark issue would no longer be a problem for toy train manufactures. (Sorry if some of you take offence to calling your live steam lok a toy.) Does anyone recall this? Of course, the UP could withdraw their consent as quickly as they granted it. 
Steve


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## aopagary (Jun 30, 2008)

Posted By vmsysprog on 09 Apr 2010 02:49 PM 
The problem was at a point that a number of manufacturers could not issue anything with UP related markings.
i've got to think this has to do with a quality issue where UP would have the veto power if certain standards were not met. seeing Aster has a history with the UP already along with their reputation for delivering a fine scale, working model, i don't see where this will be anything more than a formality. i can see the UP HQ boardroom or president's office benefiting from a comp.

cheers...gary


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

Posted By JEFF RUNGE on 09 Apr 2010 06:39 AM 
David, perhaps your Canadian ISP is not allowing you to view everything on the web site, but from the start the price has ben posted as $12500.00 US, for the kit. 
I'm sure Obama will degrade our IS down here in the near future...... 
Hi Jeff,
Sorry, I really never go to the Aster USA site, and hadn't realised that the price was set.
Last I heard was that it was a 'projected target price' for the kit.
With dollars and yens going up and down, I assumed that Hans really wouldn't know until closer to paying and delivery.
At least now that those who have placed their orders know how much to save up.
All the best,
David Leech, Delta, Canada


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## RP3 (Jan 5, 2008)

Charles, your points about the "marketplace" are valid. I wasn't making an effort to highlight the speculation aspect of the paradigm shift -- just that it existed. I do, however, believe that very limited edition of a well-known and desirable model will help resale values - especially if Accucraft doesn't do its own Challenger down the road. 

While I have your attention and at the risk of unintentionally hijacking the thread, how's the N&W J project coming?? 

Ross Schlabach


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

Posted By Charles on 09 Apr 2010 12:03 PM 

David
At one point in time early in the hobby that was what was done for a representation of CP steam power: parts, two for one and less expensive-










Hi Charles,
Not quite sure what this is!!!
Did you bash this one?
You know, you could have at least got the correct number, either 3100 or 3101, the only 4-8-4s that CP owned.
I don't think that CP ever used the 4000-4999 numbers for any steam locos. 
I have a 4-8-4 in the works, but don't have any time right now to get on with it, just plans and a box of pieces.
Too many passenger cars to build.
All the best,
David Leech, Delta, Canada


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

Posted By RP3 on 09 Apr 2010 03:51 PM 
Charles, your points about the "marketplace" are valid. I wasn't making an effort to highlight the speculation aspect of the paradigm shift -- just that it existed. I do, however, believe that very limited edition of a well-known and desirable model will help resale values - especially if Accucraft doesn't do its own Challenger down the road. 

While I have your attention and at the risk of unintentionally hijacking the thread, how's the N&W J project coming?? 

Ross Schlabach 
Ross,
Do you not feel that part of the problem with things not being done 'the old way', also has something to do with how much is now available for the Gauge 1 live steamer these days.
It used to be that every couple of years the next Aster model would come to fruition and there would be a feeding frenzy because that's really all that was available.
Then over the years we have seen more and more competition for the enthusiasts attention from many sources so that the choice is really quite enormous.
We have all kinds of different scales which again perhaps dilutes the market.
Someone who is interested in North American narrow gauge maybe committed to only that scale and therefor is unlikely to buy a standard gauge model.
Hopefully it won't get to the point where all the manufacturers give up due to their market becoming too small.
All the best,
David Leech, Delta, Canada


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By RP3 on 09 Apr 2010 03:51 PM 
Charles, your points about the "marketplace" are valid. I wasn't making an effort to highlight the speculation aspect of the paradigm shift -- just that it existed. I do, however, believe that very limited edition of a well-known and desirable model will help resale values - especially if Accucraft doesn't do its own Challenger down the road. 

While I have your attention and at the risk of unintentionally hijacking the thread, how's the N&W J project coming?? 

Ross Schlabach Ross
We should have completed the AC-6, AC-9 projects by the summer/fall. We have all the drawings, the base model, etc. At this point we are working to establish suppliers/vendors for parts we will not be making (boiler shell, etc). Our time line is to have the base model operational in 2010 (coal fired). At the present the boiler is finalized for production, cylinders have been drawn. Looking forward to see it riding the rails this year.


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## CapeCodSteam (Jan 2, 2008)

Newest update from Aster USA

4/13/2010 

* Union Pacific Railroad Company grants Limited Production and Trademark Certificate to Aster Hobby.*


Nothing should be in the way now to go forward with the project.


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Given the photo relocation one can assume both schemes are being offered (passenger/freight) as the offering is on the fast track!


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## aopagary (Jun 30, 2008)

Posted By Charles on 14 Apr 2010 05:26 AM 
Given the photo relocation one can assume both schemes are being offered (passenger/freight) as the offering is on the fast track! 

_"The possibility of a passenger version ( gray with yellow striping) depends on the number of reservations received to keep higher production cost for such features within the target price._ 
_The selected locomotive will be Union Pacific Challenger # 3985 in black, as preserved today in Cheyenne WY. The grey UP Passenger (or Greyhound version shown above in color) if made available will be engine # 3977"_

RTFP (read the fine print).

when the words 'possibility' and 'if' go away, i'll believe it.


re: GN Z8 - yikes, i'd certainly like to see one (though i'd letter mine for the SP&S), but is anyone seriously thinking about a kit-bash? 


cheers...gary


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By aopagary on 14 Apr 2010 07:29 AM 
Posted By Charles on 14 Apr 2010 05:26 AM 
Given the photo relocation one can assume both schemes are being offered (passenger/freight) as the offering is on the fast track! 

_"The possibility of a passenger version ( gray with yellow striping) depends on the number of reservations received to keep higher production cost for such features within the target price._ 
_The selected locomotive will be Union Pacific Challenger # 3985 in black, as preserved today in Cheyenne WY. The grey UP Passenger (or Greyhound version shown above in color) if made available will be engine # 3977"_

RTFP (read the fine print).

when the words 'possibility' and 'if' go away, i'll believe it.


re: GN Z8 - yikes, i'd certainly like to see one (though i'd letter mine for the SP&S), but is anyone seriously thinking about a kit-bash? 


cheers...gary 


Gary
That RTFP was part of the survey information. Given that the photo was kept after the announcement makes me believe that it is a very strong indicator that both version have been well supported via deposits. Otherwise why keep it on the website? 


Kit bash...will if there is no coal firing boilers then that would be a bash for me!


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