# whats the story on Accucraft Pennsylvania M1



## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

Hello fellow steamers: Accucraft has been announcing the PRR M1 4-8-2 for years now (I even think they did before the N&W J3 611, certainly before the SP 4-6-2 and 4-8-2 were announced) and yet no news about its schedule or even its price. 

I would like to protest and tell the people at Accucraft that we are panting and waiting for this monster to be in production soon.

If you feel the same about this, then please say so, so that they will know how much it is wanted by other railfans.

Speak up Appalachian fans for your rights! and for the republic of Pennsylvania. and let those california boys know we exist. (sic)


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## Dr Rivet (Jan 5, 2008)

Might as well plan on having it as part of your grave stone.
Find a used FAM M1 and have it converted to steam, or since you are not averse to electrics, converted to "dead rail".

Unless Bing wins the lottery, there will never be enough cash flow to produce all the models on their wish list. Just my opinion.


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

Jim,
Let's be honest here - do you really think if Bing won the lottery he would keep Accucraft going?
I wait in vain for the Canadian Pacific Selkirk, which will never be produced as I think they only had five expressions of interest, or something like that.
Cheers,
David


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

David, 
Accucraft did a least one Selkirk, I ran it a Dr.Rivet's several meets back. I even posted a short review here.


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## Tomahawk & Western RR (Sep 22, 2015)

this is kind of unrelated, but is there any chance of rio grande southern 
4-6-0 t-19 nuber 20 being produced? i is my favorite steam locomotive, mainly due to the fact of its role as Emma Sweeny, engine no. 1 of the tomahawk and western railroad (hence my username) in the movie "a ticket to tomahawk"

i prr m-1 would be nice, but if it hasnt happened yet, it probably wont


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## zubi (May 14, 2009)

Nate, they were produced already. But in a very small number. You may be able to find one second hand. Best wishes from Tokyo, Zubi


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## Tomahawk & Western RR (Sep 22, 2015)

are you referring to the electric ones made by berlyn?


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

Nate the DRG T12 was built in live steam.

M1 is a dream far away right now. I know nothing is developed yet and they do not yet have any proper drawings to start the engineering off of.

David, your best bet is talking Bing into selling you the Selkirk prototype. I think its still born.


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## Tomahawk & Western RR (Sep 22, 2015)

im reffering to a completely different loco , a RGS t-*19* not a DRG t-12

this is a t-12


this is a t-19


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

Nate, I know the RGS 20, I was just clearing up that Accucraft made the T-12. I don't think right now there is strong desire for another DRG loco. Lods of us have many of them already and the last few were very slow sales. The C25 was a small run and sold out in about 2 years. About 5 C25 have already traded hands that I am aware of. 

There will be some DRG locos for sale used soon enough. There were a few at the summer steamup and there is usually a good 5 at Diamondhead. A couple years back there was I think 5 K27 locos for sale and one being a DJB coal fired one that was NOT built by David but build up as a kit. His locos are beautiful.


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

JEFF RUNGE said:


> David,
> Accucraft did a least one Selkirk, I ran it a Dr.Rivet's several meets back. I even posted a short review here.


Jeff,
I know that.
I ran it at Stavers in Portland in April 2014.
Cheers,
David


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## David Leech (Dec 9, 2008)

Kovacjr said:


> David, your best bet is talking Bing into selling you the Selkirk prototype. I think its still born.


Jason,
I have tried that route a few times, and the answer is that it is NOT dead, and the company policy is the never sell a prototype until the project is cancelled.
Right now it is still on the back burner - but must be getting rather cold.
Cheers,
David Leech, Delta, Canada


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

Jason, any updates on the E-6 project?


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

No E6 update. Still told October. I hope its this October. I've not heard a peep about the coaches either.

Re the Selkirk, for the low interest I cant see the production making a profit with just a few sales. As was mentioned there was just a handful of orders.


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## zubi (May 14, 2009)

Tomahawk & Western RR said:


> im reffering to a completely different loco , a RGS t-*19* not a DRG t-12
> 
> this is a t-12
> 
> ...


Nate, correct. My error. I also like these t-19 engines. But it is unlikely that we will see them any time soon... Good job you are only 13! Best wishes from Tokyo, Zubi


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## Tomahawk & Western RR (Sep 22, 2015)

BTW anybody have any info on her restoration at strasburg?​


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> I've not heard a peep about the coaches either.


For anyone who was at the Summer Steam-up, you may have noticed a prototype 1/32nd PRR older-style wooden coach kit made by Iron Horse Engraving. I recently saw a photo of the finished proof of concept John says it is about 90% complete.


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

Yes Pete but I was working to do the B60 and P54 and mabye the BM54 in Brass and then long heavyweights in plastic.


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## Ray Cadd (Dec 30, 2008)

Tomahawk & Western RR said:


> BTW anybody have any info on her restoration at strasburg?​


Go on 'Narrow Gauge Discussion Forum', there are some brand new postings from Linn Moediger regarding the restoration. Looks like it's moving ahead again.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

From the latest Keystone the engine is nearly finnished restoration to exhibition (cosmetic) condition it will actually be partly dismantled (and therefore will not be available for hauling fantrips in any way) because it is to be exhibited on rollers driven by an electric underfloor motor. For this, the cylinders and piston valves will be removed and put into storage. Most of the sheet metal work on the restoration is well advanced as it will be in the new roundhouse. 

I guess its the same in the US as in France: Museums are made to preserve and a loco that is running on real railways is liable to have an accident and could ultimatly be destroyed. This actually happened recently in Switzerland to one of the last Kittel steamrailcars still in working order on the Bauma bahn which was involved in a big accident and very likely will not be repaired. In Mulhouse the rumor is that Michel Doer first currator of that museum had holes cut out in every locos crownsheet so that they never will run again! what a crime.


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## Dr Rivet (Jan 5, 2008)

Peter T
I talked to John at IHE this evening. The car is specifically for the Wuhu Casey Jones, so it is an late 1890s Harriman Standard design for the SP, CP, UP, and IC. Because it is for the Casey Jones it is 1:32 scale, unlike other standard gauge models by IHE that are 1:29 scale.
Jason, rest easy, it is NOT a PRR prototype.

Looks like a very nice model.


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## Tomahawk & Western RR (Sep 22, 2015)

du-bousquetaire said:


> From the latest Keystone the engine is nearly finnished restoration to exhibition (cosmetic) condition it will actually be partly dismantled (and therefore will not be available for hauling fantrips in any way) because it is to be exhibited on rollers driven by an electric underfloor motor. For this, the cylinders and piston valves will be removed and put into storage. Most of the sheet metal work on the restoration is well advanced as it will be in the new roundhouse.
> 
> I guess its the same in the US as in France: Museums are made to preserve and a loco that is running on real railways is liable to have an accident and could ultimatly be destroyed. This actually happened recently in Switzerland to one of the last Kittel steamrailcars still in working order on the Bauma bahn which was involved in a big accident and very likely will not be repaired. In Mulhouse the rumor is that Michel Doer first currator of that museum had holes cut out in every locos crownsheet so that they never will run again! what a crime.


 what engine are you talking about? if you are talking about RGS 20, she is going to be operational.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

I was talking about the Pennsy E6 Atlantic the Linbergh engine at Strasburg.


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

Quote deleted as I know nothing about PRR coaches.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

Actually it's quite funny this story because if the coaches (which by the way look very nice indeed) ar for the Casey Jones, which was an IC locomotive. How many people in this forum know that the Pennsy owned a fleet of almost identical locomotives back in the late 19th century. in 1993 exactly built in Fort Wayne for ther PFW&C. Some lasted into the 1920s.

Meanwhile this thread has wandered way off the title question, or to put it more bluntly who would like to see a PRR M1 4-8-2 come out within a reasonable futur? So that we might have a chance to see it before cutting out. 
It is sad news to hear that the Selkirk would be canceled it's a fine engine. Regarding the Colorado narrow gauge, I don't have anything to say except that it would seem to me that with all the models that have been released in the past the market would seem to me to be pretty well saturated. I mean what do they still need that they don't have already?
Please lets stick with the topic of the PRR M1.


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## Bob in Mich (Mar 8, 2008)

The Pennsylvania M1 was Jerry Hide project.May be He will chirp in and tell us what is happing with this project.The M1 is a fine Engine and I would like to have one.I am going to the Pennsylvania railroad Museum at Strasburg Sunday and will take pictures of the Linbergh Engine E6


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

Nothing is currently happening on the M1, no research or data has been developed for it yet and it is I am told still possible but a few years out. Only drawing they have is a photocopy of a the M1a from MR drawings. Insufficient data to build a quality model. Of course I know when the time comes it will be done right.


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## GaugeOneLines (Feb 23, 2008)

Very few of these engines that people dream about will appear, quite simply because of consumer apathy, much like so much else in this 21st century. If you really want it you HAVE to let the manufacturer know and be willing to put your money where your mouth is. I have come across people who say they would like a CP Selkirk when it comes out, but only two people have actually given me a firn committment, leaving 5 who don't want to committ, It is pretty obvious from where I sit that the two remaining manufacturers are not exactly awash with dosh so are really stretched to produce product for a shrinking market. If you are apathetic about what you want, then you are going to reap what you sow......in other words b...er all!
That may not be news but it's today's reality, the Salad Days of the '90s are but a distant dream I'm afraid. By the way Jerry Hyde's relationship with Accucraft is now minimal, but only because he doesn't have the readies to seed a project for them.
DM-K
Ottawa


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

GaugeOneLines said:


> Very few of these engines that people dream about will appear, quite simply because of *consumer apathy,* much like so much else in this 21st century. If you really want it you HAVE to let the manufacturer know and be willing to put your money where your mouth is. I have come across people who say they would like a CP Selkirk when it comes out, but only two people have actually given me a firn committment, leaving 5 who don't want to committ, It is pretty obvious from where I sit that the two remaining manufacturers are not exactly awash with dosh so are really stretched to produce product for a shrinking market. If you are apathetic about what you want, then you are going to reap what you sow......in other words b...er all!
> That may not be news but it's today's reality, the Salad Days of the '90s are but a distant dream I'm afraid.
> DM-K
> Ottawa


I think to call it "consumer apathy" is a bit unfair - surely there's no harm in just dreaming? The problem is that everyone's dream is different, so it becomes pointless to share it on an open forum.

In fact, another excellent forum I'm on (Western Thunder) specifically prohibits it in their TOS ..... 

".... no politics, sex, religion, no frothing and *definitely no wish-listing*" ....


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## Kovacjr (Jan 2, 2008)

GaugeOneLines said:


> I have come across people who say they would like a CP Selkirk when it comes out, but only two people have actually given me a firn committment, leaving 5 who don't want to commit.
> DM-K
> Ottawa


Even with that 7 interested parties all committing, its insufficient to even develop a project on that low interest. if there were say 30 Canadians that wanted it, yes it would warrant moving forward.


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## GaugeOneLines (Feb 23, 2008)

Kovacjr said:


> Even with that 7 interested parties all committing, its insufficient to even develop a project on that low interest. if there were say 30 Canadians that wanted it, yes it would warrant moving forward.


 


But Jay, that's just me as one dealer, Accucraft have many dealers. In March I spoke with two happy CP Royal Hudson owners while in the UK, both said they wanted a Selkirk 'when it comes out' but neither had contacted an Accucraft representative to put their names on the list. For John, that is an example of 'consumer apathy'........dreaming is cheap but the Companies that bring us RTR engines can't function on our whims and dreams, otherwise they will fail, they need concrete committment.
David M-K


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> they need concrete committment.


David,
This all goes back years, and was last discussed when "Accucraft" (Robert Sarberenyi) posted that the folk wanting a N&W 611 should get their names down ASAP.
http://forums.mylargescale.com/18-l...vations-accucraft-1-32-scale-n-w-j-611-a.html

It's essentially Accucraft's problem that they created. Sometimes they announce a model and sell them when they arrive - conventional retailing. A few years ago they took $300 reservations against orders for new models - they had my $300 for several years while I waited for EBT #12. Now, they say "get your reservation in" but they don't ask for a deposit. Which means the dealer has no idea if the request is serious or not. And the guys who are waiting to see the model when it arrives don't bother to 'express interest'.

IMHO, they should get a lot more organized and careful. Have two categories of models - "regular" and "special". The former arrive and you can buy one when it gets here - like the 'plantation 0-4-2' or the 4-4-0. "Specials" you put down a $300 deposit, and they tell you that it won't get built until they have 20 deposits on hand (and they publish a regular list of how many deposits are taken, with the option to drop off the list any time.) Sure, it might take 5 years to get a Pennsy M1, but at least you'd know what was going on!


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## JoelB (Jan 3, 2008)

> IMHO, they should get a lot more organized and careful.


I could not agree more -- and I would add "consistent" to that recommendation.

Both Accucraft US and Accucraft UK produce models of non-specific prototypes (Ruby and Ragleth, for example). Batches of those appear from time to time, not dependent on specific demand.

More accurate, unique and highly-detailed prototypes, however, are by their very nature going to have variable levels of interest. We all have our own personal favorites (just check out any of the "what would you like to see offered" posts in this forum for an idea of the far-ranging variety of prototypes people are passionate about).

For that second category, I would be completely in favor of what Pete's suggesting. It would be easy to track and publish a list of subscriptions to a specific model in spreadsheet format. Accucraft UK already does something similar on their web site, and it would not require unusual effort to add a couple of columns for subscription data. I"m certain that this level of detail is already being tracked internally.

But we as consumers also have a responsibility here. If we want to see something produced, we have to make our interests known when the model is first put forward and resist the temptation to sit on the sidelines. If Accucraft or any manufacturer does put a system like this in place, it will only work if we support it.

My two cents' worth.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

I agree with Pete, but i can see a few snags in the way though:
I sent my interest mail to Accucraft about the M1 three years ago, just as I took an expensive option on the E6 about three years ago and am still waiting. The problem is just what is hapening with the M1: To commit yourself you first want to know the cost of the engine before getting committed. But with Pete 's system its different for the manufacturer if he is going to make say 40 engines or a hundred. That in turn affects the price... So to put that type of system together, they would still have to announce the price tag up front. This seems to be one of the problems that occured with the SNCF 2-4-1 P which saw it's price go up and up during the long development process. I think that many lost interest then. But I still think that there is something in that system that Pete described.


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

GaugeOneLines said:


> ........... In March I spoke with two happy CP Royal Hudson owners while in the UK, both said they wanted a Selkirk 'when it comes out' but neither had contacted an Accucraft representative to put their names on the list. *For John, that is an example of 'consumer apathy'*........
> David M-K


But David - that would be an even *more* inappropriate use of the term "consumer apathy" than when you used it in your post #28. 

The fact that both "happy CP Royal Hudson owners" said they wanted a Selkirk, would tend to indicate that they were guilty of neither 'indiference', 'lack of interest', or indeed, 'lack of enthusiasm'.

I would go further and say that they were exercising a commendable level of caution in *not* putting their names on the list. Not only because of Accucraft's questionable ability to predict delivery dates and final costs - but also because of the rapidly increasing non-viability of China as a manufacturing location for our models.


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

John
I do not believe it was a point of being cautious nor an indictment of Accucraft. How is Accucraft going to proceed without some sort of "head count?" The golden years are long passed the hobby when companies could produce a product and have it in stock awaiting for the potential customers.
The recent past experience with Aster has proven that with their Tigerli. A few customers wanted it, it was produced at a quantity necessary for price/profit margins and the end result (similar to LGB/Aster with the Frank S but this time having stock for years was not an option) survival via partnership.

Pete's suggestion of a customer commitment list is valid but I would add a sizable deposit with a defined time frame of 1-2 years with a price estimate set forth. Failure of the company to meet their obligations would require refund. Thus, a commitment by both producer and consumer.


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

Charles - Your question "How is Accucraft going to proceed without some sort of head count?" is a good one to which my answer would be - it's not readily apparent at the present time. As you say - "the golden years are long passed" - and presumably you mean for low cost / high quality manufacturing in China.

My point to David was that potential customers, who exercise caution in the light of the uncertainty surrounding this whole issue, cannot be guilty of apathy - far from it.

It's partly because of this uncertainty about delivery dates, that the industry has tended to moved away from deposit based reservations. There have been cases where deposits have been tied up - sometimes for years - before being returned because the terms of the original reservation could not be met.

So any move to re-introduce deposits, in a worsening delivery situation, would only tend to drive customers towards manufacturers who do not have the disadvantage of having to deal with the rapid social and economic developments occuring in China today.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

John 842 said:


> Charles - Your question "How is Accucraft going to proceed without some sort of head count?" is a good one to which my answer would be - it's not readily apparent at the present time. As you say - "the golden years are long passed" - and presumably you mean for low cost / high quality manufacturing in China.


John, certainly Charles can speak for himself, but my interpretation of the "golden years have long passed" is that it is no longer viable or practical or wise for a manufacturer to build 150 or 300 or 600 of a model with an assurance that inventory will be sold in a reasonable time frame. Clearly, the market has shrunk and will likely continue to shrink and it makes no sense to me as a small business owner for anyone to manufacture anything but basic wide-appeal gauge one models to build for inventory.

Absent deposits to ensure a break-even point in a reasonable time-frame, what incentive remains for a manufacturer to make anything?

Good luck finding a manufacturer who will build what you want to see built without upfront money.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

I think that Charles solution to the problem I raised is pretty darn near ideal. It insures that folks know the price before committing themselves and if the delay is passed and nothing comes down the pipeline or if they modify the price announced you can get a refund. Yet it lets the manufacturer know how many people are really interested and get some front money to develop the project.


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> a customer commitment list is valid but I would add a sizable deposit with a defined time frame of 1-2 years with a price estimate set forth. Failure of the company to meet their obligations would require refund


I would comment that the system I described was the way things worked a few years ago. I was amazed when Accucraft started asking for 'commitments' with no deposit $$ attached - as they did publicly for the J 611.
Charles' amendment would be fine, but given Accucraft's track record, probably difficult in practice. I don't really mind the wait; in fact the information about the development of EBT#12 and the number ordered was available from my dealer, who was doing his job and keeping the prospects informed.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

Pete Thornton said:


> I would comment that the system I described was the way things worked a few years ago. I was amazed when Accucraft started asking for 'commitments' with no deposit $$ attached - as they did publicly for the J 611.
> Charles' amendment would be fine, but given Accucraft's track record, probably difficult in practice. I don't really mind the wait; in fact the information about the development of EBT#12 and the number ordered was available from my dealer, who was doing his job and keeping the prospects informed.


As long as we are tossing out ideas, here is an idea I have used to good success with a software developer.

I had been doing business with a firm for a number of years and they were very late consistently on anything they promised me. It became obvious that they were finishing up on all projects that had firm dates first and my projects were coming last.

Finally, I needed something in 90 days that would usually take them 180 days or more. Once I had a firm price, I offered them 15% premium if they got the job done in 60 days and I suggested that they would have a penalty of 5% a month for every month they were late beyond the agreed date. They accepted my terms. I received the software in under 45 days and it actually worked as expected!

If a manufacturer is willing to commit to a _date certain_ or else return your money, I am betting that they will let the products slip where there is no such penalty and they will put all their efforts into meeting the agreed upon deadlines.

Of course, there is no guaranty any Gauge One manufacturer would be willing to commit to such an agreement. But it would be a good case for the old saw: "Put your money where your mouth is," on the part of both parties.

Edit: Of course the start date would not be the date they received your money. The start date would have to be the date that a minimum number of commitments were received in house.


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## dougiel (Jun 3, 2008)

Here in the UK I have been waiting a long time for a Stanier Black 5 from Accucraft UK. I have not until a month or two ago put a reservation or order in for this model. I wanted to see what was coming before committing.

The second prototype which had slide valves appeared on video and was said to steam and run very well. It also looked very nice and had simplified walschaerts valve gear.

It then got pushed back near 6 months in the schedule and we were told it did not steam very well. Apparently it had the wrong size flue in the boiler !.

I have now ordered one from a dealer who has agreed to steam test and run this model before delivery. Any problems will either be sorted or the model will not be supplied.

You can see it has had a very long gestation period and we still have not seen another "engineering" sample. No wonder people are shy of ordering never mind putting a deposit down. If it does not appear before the end of this year I will be considering cancelling my order.

DougieL


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> If it does not appear before the end of this year I will be considering cancelling my order.


Dougiel,
I understand your point of view and sympathize. However, in my 20+ years dabbling in garden railway stuff, I learned that manufacturers come and go, and steam engines only get built in small quantities. If you want one, my plan is to order it when the manufacturer says they will build one, and put up with the issues when it arrives.
The alternative is to miss the boat. For example, I don't have a Regner Climax, as I was told they were 'regular production' and would be available for a while. [Then Herr Regner died, and they are not available.] The Accucraft C-16 was a delightful little engine and very suitable for a beginner, but try and find even a used loco.


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

dougiel said:


> Here in the UK I have been waiting a long time for a Stanier Black 5 from Accucraft UK. I have not until a month or two ago put a reservation or order in for this model. I wanted to see what was coming before committing.
> 
> The second prototype which had slide valves appeared on video and was said to steam and run very well. It also looked very nice and had simplified walschaerts valve gear.
> 
> ...


Unfortunately - I think your post is a good example of the 'new reality' - as I said back at the begining of the year ....



John 842 said:


> For me, the situation has got to the point where I cannot rely on previously reliable Chinese suppliers and I will only make future purchases, whether new or second hand, if I can see the actual model - and in the case of locomotives - see them running first.


All these ideas of getting potential customers to commit to a purchase - perhaps years before the event - and labelling them as apathetic if they won't "put their money where their mouth is" is all just dancing round the enormous elephant in the room ...... Yesterday has gone forever and it's those who can meet the challenges of today's world that will ultimately survive. 

A comment I made last year on another forum might bear repeating here ....

"To anybody thinking of buying a locomotive from China, I would advise them to place an order with a supplier who does not reqire a deposit and then just forget about it and carry on as if it never existed. At some point in the future when (or if) the item turns up it's a pleasant surprise and you haven't had to worry about all the delays in the meantime."


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

I realize I may be wasting time, but who doesn't waste a little time now and then . . . 

Here are a few things that I think are essentially true. Those of you who know more than I do, please set the record straight. I will not take any criticism personally.

Unless a manufacturer or manufacturer's rep is willing to engage in discussion, I doubt this thread will lead to anything other than a little noise and a little wind. 

I am defining *market* as the sum total of people with sufficient interest and with more than enough money to buy what is available periodically without missing a rent or mortgage payment.



 The market is smaller now than it was in it's heyday and it appears to be shrinking for a variety of reasons discussed in other threads. Feel free to disagree.
 As a result of #1, batches of locomotives and rolling stock have gotten smaller and the time between production runs has grown longer. Prices have not gone down!
The combination of number 1 and number 2 above contributes to less product (in terms of gross numbers of pieces) available and more frustration for the consumer as well as for the manufacturer.
No one can be happy when there is little to buy and what is available isn't getting good turn over.
​Despite the efficiencies that have resulted from modern production processes (CNC, Laser cutting, 3D printing, robotics, etc.,) small production quantities tend to minimize any advantage that would otherwise have resulted in greater quantities at lower prices per unit.

I don't want to make things overly complicated, but it seems obvious to me that something has to give?

For the would-be manufacturer to produce a new model, the manufacturer has to believe that it will sell out in a reasonable period of time. Furthermore, for new or follow-on models to come out, there has to be at least some profitability from earlier models. One can build on success, but one cannot build on failure.

For example, if a manufacturer were to make 300 locomotives and a year after release, only 75 have sold, this will have a chilling effect on all future production. Certainly, anything that follows will be produced with circumspection.

The consumer (allegedly in dwindling numbers,) can grouse all he or she wants, but nothing good is going to come from the complaints.

_*To break the cycle what can be done?*_

I have suggested that a model has to be pre-sold to at least the break-even point before a manufacturer will be stimulated to build another run.

I can see that there needs to be give and take between supplier and consumer, but more depends upon the consumer's money being available.

Milestones?



Announce a prospective model thought to be in demand.
Assess level of interest - possibly accept verbal commitments at this point?
If deemed a go, solely at the discretion of the manufacturer, produce a prototype.
Take in relatively large deposits, 50% or greater.
When pre-sold levels are not reached within "x" time, cancel production and return deposits in full.
When pre-sold level reaches a threshold, announce production and a reasonable delivery date.
If the date is missed, offer a reduction in price (suggestion, 5% per month of delay up to 6 months +/-)
After a delay of "y" months, offer a refund.

The manufacturer takes the full risk of producing a prototype. There is no production if the model isn't sufficiently pre-sold.

It is my belief that with such an incentive - guaranteed sell-out of production in a reasonable time, a manufacturer will pull out the stops to meet the commitment.

Obviously, if the manufacturer is forced to make refunds, then the business is failing.

Just a few thoughts . . .


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Joe
Your overview has merit as to all parties making a commitment.

I doubt if the production of a "new model" that was late (due to circumstances not control by manufacturer or most other factors) that any company would offer a reduction in price (more likely to go up in price!). As to good well, the company might offer something such as a bottle of steam oil.

Following Aster USA engagement for a new product, the Manufacturer would probably require deposit in the nature of non-refundable.

The situation is kinda of catch-22 in nature: company fails to product the produce, thus out of business therefore cannot return deposit. 

I can see the lawyers getting involve with the process...thus the customer gets a settlement of pennies on the dollar.


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## Chris Scott (Jan 2, 2008)

StackTalk said:


> The manufacturer takes the full risk of producing a prototype. There is no production if the model isn't sufficiently pre-sold.
> 
> It is my belief that with such an incentive - guaranteed sell-out of production in a reasonable time, a manufacturer will pull out the stops to meet the commitment.
> 
> ...



It's unrealistic to expect a Accucraft, Aster, etc., to sink development capital of $20-50K+ (depending) through to building a prototype and then hope for enough sales to manufacture it and if not just go, "oh well." Money doesn't grow on trees and the popular opinion that any business has lots of money to throw around just isn't true.

If you or a group want a particular locomotive put up the development capital, get some skin in the game, bear the risk. It's easy to spend someone else's money and come up with the list of reasons why and formula for a manufacturer to make what you you want. This doesn't mean that these might not have some contribution to make, although they are looking from the outside in.. It's just that money talks. Everything else is just talk.

It's a cold cruel world.


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## Chris Scott (Jan 2, 2008)

StackTalk said:


> As long as we are tossing out ideas, here is an idea I have used to good success with a software developer.
> 
> I had been doing business with a firm for a number of years and they were very late consistently on anything they promised me. It became obvious that they were finishing up on all projects that had firm dates first and my projects were coming last.
> 
> ...




Since there is really no commonality between manufacturing a model locomotive and writing software code, I take it you're idea is that we offer Accucraft, Aster, etc. a 15% premium above their stated price if they bring the project in in 1 1/2 years instead of two? Heck of a deal.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

Chris Scott said:


> Since there is really no commonality between manufacturing a model locomotive and writing software code, I take it you're idea is that we offer Accucraft, Aster, etc. a 15% premium above their stated price if they bring the project in in 1 1/2 years instead of two? Heck of a deal.


LOLOLOLOL,

Yep, that's what I must have meant!


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

Charles said:


> Joe
> Your overview has merit as to all parties making a commitment.
> 
> I doubt if the production of a "new model" that was late (due to circumstances not control by manufacturer or most other factors) that any company would offer a reduction in price (more likely to go up in price!). As to good well, the company might offer something such as a bottle of steam oil.


A bottle of snake, err, I mean *steam* oil would be good, Charles.

I was only thinking of materials and processes under manufacturer control. Acts of God, earthquakes etc. to be excepted.



> Following Aster USA engagement for a new product, the Manufacturer would probably require deposit in the nature of non-refundable.
> 
> The situation is kinda of catch-22 in nature: company fails to product the produce, thus out of business therefore cannot return deposit.


I've never inquired as to what the current manufacturers require in the form of a real money commitment to a get model prototyped? Perhaps the sponsor (and not the manufacturer) has been bearing the costs? If so, we are all indebted to these intrepid souls.



> I can see the lawyers getting involve with the process...thus the customer gets a settlement of pennies on the dollar.


Charles, Chris, et al . . .

I was just throwing out a few ideas on a slow day for me. 

I tend to over-use analogies, Chris.

Getting away from software development, I use a similar approach with other contractors, especially the type who take in more work than they can complete and then try to juggle their schedule, ending up pleasing no one. 

I reward them when they finish ahead of schedule and I try and "give them a haircut" when they fail to deliver on time.

I reckon the thought process that underpins my suggestions is this one:

In a specialized market . . . with very small numbers involved . . . I think we are getting to a time where the consumer will have to put money up front to get something developed, especially if the thing has very limited appeal.

If the manufacturer were to have its need met to have a production run pre-sold, then the consumer has some right to make demands regarding delivery. Otherwise?

Otherwise, it's just a situation of "hat-in-hand" and possibly waiting for something that will not happen.

Signed,

Vladimir and Estragon


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## Chris Scott (Jan 2, 2008)

StackTalk said:


> In a specialized market . . . with very small numbers involved . . . I think we are getting to a time where the consumer will have to put money up front to get something developed, especially if the thing has very limited appeal.
> 
> If the manufacturer were to have its need met to have a production run pre-sold, then the consumer has some right to make demands regarding delivery. Otherwise?
> 
> ...



Why all this dancin around the elephants in the room, Accucraft and Aster? We willingly dance with them everywhere else. We can mention them.

Full payment up front, too complicated. Could happen, but when? At conception, no. At pilot model, maybe. Dog and pony show, certainly. Neither Accucraft nor Aster want to be a bank. Puts the dealers in a really difficult situation, in the middle. They will, "resist".

Aster's non-refundable $1,000 deposit is about as far as it's likely to go (in method and amount.) It's meant to send a message. It's really a empty threat. If there are extenuating circumstances (i.e., my mother-n-law showed up, etc.) of course they would refund your deposit. Good customer relations; typically it's not a good idea to punish your customers. Goodwill is priceless. 

"...pre-sold...right to make (delivery) demands..." Good luck with that. It's a non sequitur. Buying a product doesn't buy the company nor power over it. Besides, what are you going to do; demand, I want mine between 1 and 3 on the 2nd Tuesday of next week? We'll check with UPS and get back to you.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

> <snip>
> 
> "...pre-sold...right to make (delivery) demands..." Good luck with that. It's a non sequitur. Buying a product doesn't buy the company nor power over it. Besides, what are you going to do; demand, I want mine between 1 and 3 on the 2nd Tuesday of next week? We'll check with UPS and get back to you.


Not mentioning Aster or Accucraft?
I intended to keep the discussion "generic" so as to avoid riling anyone up. We could be speaking about Bowande and others as well.

My signature reference? I assume no one wants to be waiting for Godot to show up . . . as he never does. 

Perhaps a poor word choice on my part, Chris, concerning the use of the word "demand." The word does not evoke the tone I was after. I've made a few suggestions in an attempt to stimulate friendly dialog and we've had some of that.

That said, if one has a right to make a demand, it doesn't follow that one owns the company. It suggests that there may be an underlying purchase contract where one party has an obligation to deliver according to terms and the other party has an obligation to pay according to terms. I am sorry if the concept should appear foreign in this context.

I maintain that no one should expect a Selkirk or an M1a to be manufactured on the basis of half a dozen fellows suggesting that they may be interested, assuming a model can be delivered in under a decade and at an attractive price, money to change hands once the inventory is ready to ship.  

The above is really what motivated my entering the thread with a few suggestions.

I've gone further than I intended in this discussion and I am content to leave it as it is unless anyone wishes to continue.


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

StackTalk said:


> .............. The above is really what motivated my entering the thread with a few suggestions.
> 
> I've gone further than I intended in this discussion and I am content to leave it as it is unless anyone wishes to continue.


I certainly don't think these kinds of discussions are a "waste of time" and even if they don't "lead to anything other than a little noise and a little wind." I still think they can lead to a better understanding of how our world of trains functions.

Perhaps an additional point I would like to make concerns the use of analogies.

It seems to me that many people - including manufacturers - are not sufficiently aware of the fundamental differences that can exist in the relationship between the supplier and consumer.

In the case of your software developer, both the consumer and the supplier are entering into a contractural arrangement where unforseen difficulties are factored into the contract - in fact, experience shows that these difficulties are to be expected and both parties are compensated financially to deal with the issues arising as part of a normal job description. They also, hopefully, derive satisfaction from a job well done.

In the case of model trains, the situation is completely different - the supplier's business is essentialy one of selling dreams to people who are looking to get a recreational break from their everyday life of missed deadlines, budget overuns, expediting and procurement issues etc. etc. - they're are not looking for compensation other than just the realization of their dreams. The last thing they want is for these humdrum essentials of normal life to intrude into their recreational world of trains.

One thing in particular that stands out among some of todays suppliers is something that was shown to be ineffective in the automobile industry in the distant past - pushing deffective product out the door and then expecting everything will be OK just because they will take care of the customer with a superb warranty service.

That approach might work to a degree with everyday essentials in life like cars and washing machines but in the dream world of model trains people don't even want to think about warranties - they just want trains that work like they should - and when they were promised. Anything less is just a broken dream.

I think it will the supplier that really understands these differences in consumer mindset who will ultimately have the advantage in the market place.


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## Accucraft UK (Sep 16, 2013)

Technically, in the UK at least, a non-refundable deposit should be subject to a signed contract, without which it may not be legal. We have never encouraged our dealers to take deposits, quite the converse in fact since we are always hunting around for additional stock and a cancelled order is an opportunity!

I guess we are very lucky in the UK since the hobby is a tight one and everyone knows everyone else and there is a large element of trust.

Graham.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

One more response . . . 

@ John:



> In the case of model trains, the situation is completely different - the supplier's business is essentialy one of selling dreams to people who are looking to get a recreational break from their everyday life of missed deadlines, budget overuns, expediting and procurement issues etc. etc. - they're are not looking for compensation other than just the realization of their dreams.


I understand. Real estate brokers and car dealers are sometimes engaged in selling dreams as well. Ditto, a contractor who builds a "dream kitchen" or dream man-cave. 

To put my ill-fated suggestion another way . . . I wasn't meaning to be about compensation and penalty as much as I was trying to get at incentive for the manufacturer to make more things (assuming the money were really on the table,) and to be accountable for a better-paced delivery.

I think on the issue of putting things out the door that need attention afterward . . . this is not intentional, in my view, but I have been around long enough to see that it does happen. Some of us have the wherewithal to make correction and improvement and find this to be enjoyable, but others clearly do not . . . and I don't think they are wrong to expect "right on arrival."

I don't think this discussion moves anything forward, but time will tell as it always does.


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

Accucraft UK said:


> Technically, in the UK at least, a non-refundable deposit should be subject to a signed contract, without which it may not be legal. We have never encouraged our dealers to take deposits, quite the converse in fact since we are always hunting around for additional stock and a cancelled order is an opportunity!
> 
> I guess we are very lucky in the UK since the hobby is a tight one and everyone knows everyone else and there is a large element of trust.
> 
> Graham.


Graham, thank you. I was hoping to see input from a manufacturer.

I do note that things in the UK are much "tighter," and that popular models sell at a brisker pace. I visit Geoff Calver's site often and I see that he gets very good turnover and the items he sells seem to hold value.

Considering the relative size of our two populations, 61 million for the entire UK, 53 million of which is in England and that of the U.S. at 319 million, it would appear that relative interest is much higher over there.

I do hope that I have not been seen as bringing up trust issues?

I believe everyone involved in the business aspects of this hobby of whom I am aware are honorable - honourable if you prefer. I meant to be_ going on_ about increasing incentive.

Sometimes a contract may be seen as a legal instrument that substitutes for a hand-shake where the parties may not honor commitments otherwise. In the context of our discussion, _I was not thinking along such lines._ 

Other times, a contract may be looked upon as an expression of mutual understanding and to clarify expectations. Putting things in writing formalizes the understandings whether the contract has any teeth in it or not. However; if the manufacturer were to agree to compensate the buyer in some way for late delivery in return for upfront money perhaps both parties would be further "incentivized."

My thinking, which may be flawed in any number of ways, was that, if you were guaranteed a sell-out each time you made something, you'd make more things, more often.

I now think that I must have been dreaming. 

What I think I understand from you and also from others in the UK, is that you've been confident going into a project over there, that you will sell out, because it is more common for an expression of interest to equal money on the table. If so, then yes, that is lucky indeed.

Carry on then.


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> The market is smaller now than it was in it's heyday and it appears to be shrinking for a variety of reasons discussed in other threads. Feel free to disagree.
> As a result of #1, batches of locomotives and rolling stock have gotten smaller and the time between production runs has grown longer. Prices have not gone down!
> The combination of number 1 and number 2 above contributes to less product (in terms of gross numbers of pieces) available and more frustration for the consumer as well as for the manufacturer.


I'm afraid I have to disagree with your basic premise. Aster (until recently) was churning out models with monotonous regularity. Accucraft started producing models for Australia, the UK, Germany, and also for special interests (e.g. "Sea Lion") yet still produces models for the US at about the same rate as before - slow but they get there. And Bowande/Wuhu jumped in and is producing for the same markets! 

Clearly there are more people buying live steam engines - the market is expanding, not shrinking.

I think a lot of this thread has to do with Jerry Hyde producing a list of desirable models (e.g.the Pennsy M1 in the title of the thread,) which Accucraft then published on their "News" page as "Future Releases" - thus getting everyone's hopes up. Note that page disappeared about a year ago, as it was full of optimistic dates for current production, never mind the 'under consideration' stuff ! I recall asking about the UK A1 'Tornado', which was listed on the UK Distributor's site as available in Spring (I won't mention which year) while the US Accucraft website had no date for delivery.

Did someone suggest "expressing interest" and then forgetting about it, so the eventual arrival is a surprise? Sounds like a good plan to me!


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## John 842 (Oct 1, 2015)

Pete Thornton said:


> ...................Clearly there are more people buying live steam engines - the market is expanding, not shrinking....................


Yes that would be my impression too - but the difficulty is how to quantify this activity.

Maybe we need some kind of market activity indicator - just like the bulk commodity industry has their 'Baltic Dry Index' - and the finished goods industry has their 'HARPEX' index.

Perhaps we could have a 'RAILEX' index based on the footage of new track shipped each month - adjusted for the amount of track taken out of service for whatever reason - then, when the index is in positive territory things are looking up and when it turns negative it's time to start worrying. 

After all - all these new locos must have somewhere to run and the tracks on U-Tube seem to be getting bigger and more sophisticated all the time....


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## StackTalk (May 16, 2014)

Pete Thornton said:


> I'm afraid I have to disagree with your basic premise. Aster (until recently) was churning out models with monotonous regularity. Accucraft started producing models for Australia, the UK, Germany, and also for special interests (e.g. "Sea Lion") yet still produces models for the US at about the same rate as before - slow but they get there. And Bowande/Wuhu jumped in and is producing for the same markets!
> 
> *Clearly there are more people buying live steam engines - the market is expanding, not shrinking.*


Pete, I am not invested in being right about my assertions as to a shrinking market. In fact, I hope to be proven wrong. 

What I do see is that production runs from Aster have been pretty small, presumably so as to sell out in a reasonable time-frame. My understanding is that the sponsor is "on the hook," to move inventory. There aren't as many Aston Martins and Jaguars being made as Toyota cars either, so perhaps high-end sales volume being low is an insufficient indicator.

I've no knowledge of annual sales of Accucraft or Bowande/Wuhu into gauge 1.

If you are correct, it's "all good" as they say and there will be lots of nice things happening in the years ahead.


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## Accucraft UK (Sep 16, 2013)

Our expansion into other scales (1:13.7 & 1:32) was to meet a perceived demand and we have not been disappointed. Although the Quarry Hunslet was a complete 'shot in the dark' and the naysayers predicted it would flop, our target of an initial batch of 50 units was pleasantly under the mark and opened the way for ready to run 1:13.7 locomotives. In 1:32 scale the aim was to produce affordable, ready to run locos that would be easy to manage. 

We are grateful for the continued support we get from both UK and US markets and intend to produce a minimum of one new model in each of the four scales each year, as well as rolling stock for three scales. Bear in mind that no firm produced ready to run rolling stock in 1:19 scale until Ian Pearse took the plunge and began the enormously expensive task of making plastic rolling stock (the capital costs of which make locomotive production pale by comparison).

I can well understand that Accucraft US must lose faith when they invest in tooling for an expensive model (such as the Selkirk) only for the supposed 'demand' evaporate once they have produced a production sample - it would make any firm cautious!

Graham.


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## JoelB (Jan 3, 2008)

> Our expansion into other scales (1:13.7 & 1:32) was to meet a perceived demand and we have not been disappointed.


Graham,

From my point of view, the major reason for your success is having accurately read the market and consistently made good decisions on what models to produce. Perhaps this is not as challenging in the UK, where there some prototypes (e.g. the Quarry Hunslet, Tornado) are universally popular. Nonetheless, Accucraft UK has rarely (if ever) put a foot wrong in this regard.

There is also a much longer and richer history of small-scale live steam in Britain, so the market is not quite the tiny niche it is in the US. On top of that, my impression is that model railways in general have more adherents (in terms of absolute numbers) in the UK than the US. That translates into a higher percentage of a higher overall number of railway modelers interested in live steam, so even in a country with a smaller population, it's not difficult finding enough interest to get a 30-unit or 50-unit batch built.


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Pete
"Clearly there are more people buying live steam engines - the market is expanding, not shrinking."
Facts tells one otherwise (at least in US market). Aster production numbers speak to that (US model): 2005 Berkshire 300 units, 2008 S2 257 units (few left with Hans), 2012 UP Challenger 100 units, 2015 FEF 130 (still some in Japan last word I got).
Combine that with drop in Accucraft unit numbers from hundreds to N&W 611 live steam to 65 units. Bowande unit number per production under 100 per locomotive.
The aging hobby population, the lost of "g" scale stores and manufacturers gone all are indicators of less customers. Most of the hobbyists have indicted they are selling off their collection.
Even if you all up all the units currently offered by Accuraft/Aster, Bowande it will not match the "golden years" when Aster made between 300-3000 units of a production model.

That said, I do believe the hobby will still viable but limited in scope.


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## AsterUK (Jan 2, 2008)

Charles, when I started Aster UK 18 years ago, the prophets of doom told me that the hobby was in terminal decline. My senses said otherwise. In the last 18 years I have commissioned 11 models from Aster Hobby Co Inc with run sizes of between 100 and 500 pieces. In that time, we have grown the market enormously. If Aster could have supplied me one new model a year, then we could have done a lot more. 

My advice to anyone who wants to try their luck, is simple. Feed the market with product that customers want to buy. Ensure what you sell is the best in terms of quality and value and back it up with good personal service. Job done!


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## Charles (Jan 2, 2008)

Andrew
The production numbers of US model has never done well in offerings of high number (say 500). I can remember "fire sale" of Aster K4's (economy was factor but so were the number of units).
A normal range would be between 100-300. I believe Hans had a good handle on both models to offer and the quota necessary for the US. 
As I stated I believe the hobby will be viable but limited in scope as per production numbers and what the customer is willing to pay for.
As you know there is quite a different market and customer base in the UK vs. US.
Your bottom line is key to viability of the hobby: what the customer wants, quality and good service.


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## du-bousquetaire (Feb 14, 2011)

This thread has sailed way away from my original subject yet is ever more fascinating and I hope it will help the manufacturers find ways to weather the storm and continue to produce the magnificent models, we so much enjoy. If it helps acheive this then so much for the better.
This in particular, in the light of the recent developments in the business of manufacturing gauge one live steam. 
May it continue!
Du-bousquetaire


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## dougiel (Jun 3, 2008)

AsterUK said:


> My advice to anyone who wants to try their luck, is simple. Feed the market with product that customers want to buy. Ensure what you sell is the best in terms of quality and value and back it up with good personal service. Job done!


I would agree totally with this statement by Andrew. The only change would be to make "consistent quality" items. All to often the quality from some seems to be all over the place from good to very bad. You can never be sure what you will get. And if the back up service is not too good it leaves a bad taste. Especially bad for any beginer getting into the scale for the first time who may be put off.

You also need designers that can take the basic properties needed to produce a good running model and build them into that item. Ample steam generation coupled with efficient cylinders and valve gear. The customer will then be happy with his purchase and come back for more.

DougieL


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## AsterUK (Jan 2, 2008)

Charles

The example of the Fire Sale of K4s and NYC Hudson's is often brought out at times like this as a reason for caution. However the USRA Mikado sold 400 pieces steadily. Something else in the mid-price range might do well if it had wide appeal across N America. However, this is Hans's market so he must decide. 

For the UK market, fortune favours the brave (or is it foolish?). Do the research into what folks want and back the choice with a sales and marketing effort. With Aster you get quality, accuracy and innovation which builds customer confidence. Once the ball is rolling its difficult to stop.

Enough from me on this thread now.


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## Nick Jr (Jan 2, 2008)

Dougiel, if I may quote you: "you also need designers that can take the basic properties needed to produce a good running model and build them into that item. Ample steam generation coupled with efficient cylinders and valve gear. The customer will then be happy with his purchase and come back for more". 
This is why I anxiously await the next american Wuhu locomotive. LG


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## dougiel (Jun 3, 2008)

Nick, this is what I mean about variable quality. The Wuhu/Bowande loco I recieved had several major faults on it. It went back in the end without being steamed as it was not as described on the advertisement.

The eight BR MK1 coaches I had from them all had major problems with the bogies, doors and couplings. Then there was the metalic green ! roofs.

Now, if everything coming from them was as good as your loco sounds ?.

DougieL


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

> Accucraft US must lose faith when they invest in tooling for an expensive model (such as the Selkirk)


Hmm.. My understanding was that the Selkirk used much of the tooling from the Royal Hudson, so it was a no-brainer, cost wise. Question was: who wanted one ?


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## Nick Jr (Jan 2, 2008)

Dougiel, I don't know of which locomotive you speak. Every manufacturer of anything produces a lemon now and then, but that didnt stop me. If that were the case I would have never bought another loco from Accucraft after the AML K4. They made good on that and I went ahead and purchased others they made and am satisfied with them. I can positively say that the G5 I received is easy steaming an runs just great. I will purchase another Wuhu, hoping it is another PRR. LG


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## dougiel (Jun 3, 2008)

GaugeOneLines said:


> But Jay, that's just me as one dealer, Accucraft have many dealers. In March I spoke with two happy CP Royal Hudson owners while in the UK, both said they wanted a Selkirk 'when it comes out' but neither had contacted an Accucraft representative to put their names on the list. For John, that is an example of 'consumer apathy'........dreaming is cheap but the Companies that bring us RTR engines can't function on our whims and dreams, otherwise they will fail, they need concrete committment.
> David M-K


David, have you checked the accucraft US website lately ?. According to a list put out by Graham Langer here in the UK it is "NEW" . Looks like they are asking for pre orders perhaps.

If I read the anouncement by Graham right we can now order US items through Accucraft UK direct rather than a dealer. Now I could fancy one of the alcohol fired Royal Hudson's and a set of coaches. Wonder if we would get the two free coaches as well };^) .

DougieL


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