# Will track prices fall?



## Richard Weatherby (Jan 3, 2008)

The prices of copper has dropped from almost $4 a pound a few months ago, down to $2 today.
Is this similar to gasoline? Will the price of track return to where it was?

May be the manufacturers should be shopping now for good prices on brass.

If the price of oil is down also, will the price of plastic also drop?

or are we going to pay for old inventory at high prices?


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

Dick,

I think it is in the manufacturer's interest to price the track as cheaply as possible. Seeing as this is the number one item purchased for a garden railroad, it would be best to keep it as low as possible. If that means going back and renegotiating the bulk price, then so be it. In the long run, high track prices hurt us all. 

Mark


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## wchasr (Jan 2, 2008)

Not having committed these things to memory like some railroaders but as I remember it was such a huge increase based on the expiration of a long term contract with a supplier. the news was that there would no longer be any long term contracts so the prices should flucuate a bit from year to year. Since I went looking for track last year and could find none in stock (everyone was willing to order it for me) this SHOULD mean that there is relatively little track in stock "at old prices" from now on. The reality I'm sure is quite different from store to store however and like the gas stations who are quick to raise prices and slow to lower them (still paying $3.40 as of yesterday locally) I think the story would be similar. Since Aristo has a forum amybe someone who still hasn't gotten kicked off could go ask if the pricing will be dropping again? 

with a friend in the non-ferrous recycling business he says it's bad how fast the pricing has dropped. However a few short years ago the scrap brass & copper prices were at less than 50 cents per pound. Still beign 4 times what they were I'd hazard a geuss that prices won't drop for at least another year and likely never.

Chas
(who is using SS track and will still not be buying track for a while)


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## Steeeeve (Sep 10, 2008)

Asked and answered on the Aristo forums. 

http://www.aristocraft.com/vbulletinforums/showthread.php?t=12999 

Dear All, 

I'm going to China next month to deal with the pricing issue and coming up with a formula for pricing. We have purchased while the prices were high and need to deal with our next order when costs are lower. Don't for get we have a 6 month lead time and the drop in prices came after our current purhcases. 

Also, the dollar has weakened by 15% since the last price change was made, so it's a complicated issue. However, we are on it and hope to come back with a formula for pricing before year's end. We pay for the goods in Chinese RMB and the pricing is also affected by the dollar. 

We did not raise prices unitil long after the costs quadrupled, but will try to have an answer for purchases in 2009 soon. 

All the best, 
Lewis Polk


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## aceinspp (Jan 2, 2008)

I wouldn't bet on it. later RJD


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## lownote (Jan 3, 2008)

They'll go down if demand goes down, which I think it will. But demand will only go down if people don't have any money to spend!


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## Sesh1975 (Aug 25, 2008)

I just picked up 144 feet of flex track at 3.99 a foot. It was a presale deal that I got but the price is still reasonable if you still want track at 4.99 a foot. 6 foot sections of code 332


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## Jerry Barnes (Jan 2, 2008)

Confucious say: 'Prices that go up do not come down.'


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

They will come down, but only if copper prices stay down for a while, long enough for long tern contract prices to stabilize at a lower rate. Its all about worldwide demand, demand goes up, prices follow, demand falls, we get to buy track. 

At least with falling copper prices we may see a drop in copper and brass thefts.


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## John J (Dec 29, 2007)

I thought I read some where that they are going to change the ingrediants and reduce the amount of copper which should make the brass cheaper to produce. 

The the price might come down some


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## Richard Weatherby (Jan 3, 2008)

Price of copper was down to $1.70 today, dropping faster than oil. 
Why reduce the copper? 
Price is so low my son can't get a legitimate price for recycle from work. 
May be this will stop folks from stealing gutter & downspouts or elsewhere.


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## paintjockey (Jan 3, 2008)

Most people started charging the higher price on the old (cheaper) stock when copper went through the roof. So my guess is that most will keep the high price on the new cheaper stock. There will always be a select few that will sell at rock bottom prices though.... 
It's just a matter of finding them.


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## Steeeeve (Sep 10, 2008)

We got to get over Aristo's insane lead time. I guess 6 months is fairly normal for china from what I understand but can no one make these products in the US for a somewhat good price at twice the quality?


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## jmill24 (Jan 11, 2008)

For you people who use stainless track, it is also falling in price. 304 Stainless Steel dropped about 25% in the last few months and continues to fall.........Jim


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

JJ, that was Lewis of Aristocraft, and he does have a "lower quality" brass coming out with less copper. I think it might be in stock as flex track now. 

Regards, Greg


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## Chucks_Trains (Jan 2, 2008)

Yes, when Marklin starts selling LGB track.


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