# Why are gasoline prices rising again?



## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

Why are gas prices rising when: the media reports demand for ALL products (oil based) are DOWN, Oil and gas inventories are high, yet in the past 60 days gasoline has gone up over 25 cents a gallon (US)  about 20%  While at the same time Oil has moved very little,
 possibly down as much as 5% ??  
 Any one know why?  Where are the billions of dollars going? Oil Companies?  Whole sale prices (NYSE) bottomed at about $.99 a gallon and is about $1.27 now.  This kind of energy cost increases will make any economic recovery almost impossible....
Do NOT turn this into a political debate !!


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

Because they can, that's why. If you want to see a real scandal, look at the price of diesel compared to their refining costs etc. They will make more in this economic downturn by gouging then they did when the crude cost was higher. 

Keith


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## Paul Burch (Jan 2, 2008)

Refineries have cut back on production,thus higher prices.


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## ralphbrades (Jan 3, 2008)

Try living in the UK -here Shell "Super Green" petrol is £0.93p per litre... 

regards 

ralph


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## altterrain (Jan 2, 2008)

Corporate greed off the backs of the little guy. 

-Brian


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## c nelson (Dec 18, 2008)

Posted By Cougar Rock Rail on 02/11/2009 8:17 AM
Because they can, that's why. If you want to see a real scandal, look at the price of diesel compared to their refining costs etc. They will make more in this economic downturn by gouging then they did when the crude cost was higher. 

Keith




Amen! 

cale, owner of 2002 F250 7.3L Diesel Monster


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## pageeddie (Nov 2, 2008)

Because the Oil company profits are dropping ....and they dont like it

The whole deal of gas prices lately makes me gasp at the audacity of the Oil companies.
Here is a little outline for consideration - 


say Oil required to make a gallon of gas cost them $1and they charged $1.50 a gallon for gas
Profit = $0.50 

If they sell 100 gallons they make $5.00

Now oil prices jump
It now costs them $2 for the oil to make a gallon so not unreasonably the cost of gas goes up to $2.50
Profit = $0.50

if they sell 100 gallons they still make $5.00

So how come the Oil make Record Profits when oil prices go up ?

Some will say it is because they benefit from the high oil prices from their wells

True to an extent however it is a stated fact that companies like Exxon make more from their refined products than from selling oil
and it is reported that to offset the drop in oil profits they are looking to themake higher profits on their refined ones like gas

so when oil prices drop you dont see the same drop in gas prices, in fact you are now seeing the opposite hence this forum. 






Eddie


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## John Allman (Jan 2, 2008)

I thought this wasn't suppose to be a political discussion, but who really cares what the answer is when populism is so much fun! 

Jeff - The probable actual answer is complex. You would need to look at the crack spread, total DOE inventory and gas inventory to find the answer. As the saying goes, "that answer is beyond the scope of this post" 

But there is one other thing most people do not know: In our blessed home state, it is illegal to sell gas for less than the current spot price. Sounds innoculous, but it is not. The effect of this is that gas prices do not go down as fast as you would like, and immediately rise to match the current price. Your local gas station pays 30000 or so for a tanker of gas. They don't buy gas every day. So when they do buy gas, it is always at a weighted average price that is higher than what you see in the commodity market. (and remember, what you are looking at is the price of 42000 gallons of gas, without delivery costs added) 

These rules would only make sense if you collected taxes based on a percentage of the price, and wanted to collect as much as possible. 

Draw you own conclusion.


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## Bill4373 (Jan 3, 2008)

the real reason .. because this is the 2nd Wednrsday of the month ... which makes as much sense as any other reason


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## Nohandles (Jan 2, 2009)

I thought the wind was coming from the South was causing it.


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## Pete Chimney (Jan 12, 2008)

I would like to make a few comments to your recent post.

Currently oil is selling for around $40/barrel (although there are many different grades of crude oil, some higher priced than others) or approximately 95 cents per gallon. But this is a sale price at the wellhead. Once a barrel of oil is produced is must be transported to a refinery, refined into products, shipped to distribution terminals, and sent to a filling station. All of these steps add to the cost of the fuel and eat into your hypothetical profits of 50 cents per gallon. The usual profit margin for oil companies is approximately 8%, that is for each $1 in sales they benefit with 8 cents profit. Companies such as Microsoft and many pharmaceuticals have profit margins in the 20-30% range.

There has been much said in the press and TV media about large oil company profits. While the dollar amount of profits are larger so are the total dollar amounts of sales. In other words the oil costs more to purchase and the prices charged are higher and so are the profits but the profit margin is still the same 8%. This year the dollar amounts of profits for large oil companies will be less, princiaply due to the price of oil being much lower and the prices of producs also being down. But the profit margin will still be around 8%.


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## John Allman (Jan 2, 2008)

Pete - I must correct you. No doubt people will complain you are a big oil shrill - because you live in TX - and so I feel compelled to correct you. 

If your software company had net margins of 25 percent you would be fired. Hardware tends to run 55-65%. Software in excess of 70% margins. Next time get your story straight. 

I will bet that do to E&P spending major oil companies will show a negative cash flow this year. But that is another story, not worthy of note when we need to find someone to blame.


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## aceinspp (Jan 2, 2008)

Well i do not see the new pres doing anything about it either. Here sure did complain before he became pres. Later RJD


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## Al McEvoy (Jan 3, 2008)

Suggest reading this. Seems to cover what has been suggested here plus more. Basic reason is - prices fell too far and the oil cos. were losing cents per gallon (horrors!) but they have to run in the black, so..... 
http://tinyurl.com/caabst 

Al


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

So the short answer in inventory, but all I hear from the media when they "investigate" is inventories are UP... So with all the information I can find gasoline prices should have held steady at the lower prices they reached in January. 
John, yes I know the prices do not include delivery, custom additive packages or taxes, but I was just looking at the change in price... I did NOT know that the state had their fingers in the pricing !! 
Jeff


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## Tom Leaton (Apr 26, 2008)

In Illinois, the cause will be taxes later this year, according to those behind it


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## Ray Dunakin (Jan 6, 2008)

One reason is that OPEC has cut production of raw crude in order to drive prices back up.


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## altterrain (Jan 2, 2008)

Work for Mobil-Exxon Pete? What a load of crap! 

-Brian


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## Mike Reilley (Jan 2, 2008)

The simple answer is we can't tell why they're going up...that's because in the case of gasoline...supply has a lot of meanings...oil availability out of the ground, tanker/pipeline availability, storage availability, refining capacity, and lastly, refined product delivery capacity. It's NOT just about the cost of oil futures on the NYMEX...and it's oil FUTURES that get all the price talk...not spot prices.

Right now, the US has a oil supply problem in the context of oil storage capacity. Believe it or not...the tanks that crude are supplied in are full...especially the HUGE ones in Oklahoma that connect to all the national pipelines. There's no room at the inn...for the newer "cheap" oil. The rest of the bad news is that they are full of oil that was bought months ago and can't be sold now because oil prices have fallen...well, can't be sold without taking a loss. 

So....the refiner's solution is simple...raise the cost of the end product (gasoline) so that the refiners who bought the expensive oil a few months ago aren't losing money as fast. There's also a strong likelihood that several months back, due to the recession and people buying less fuel, that the prices for fuel were reduced too fast or too far...and that there's a need to re-earn that loss by raising prices. 

Personally...I think it's that later reason...the refiners are trying to recoup the losses the suffered in January so that by the end of the quarter their profit/loss looks better. I think they went too low when gas got to $1.75 a gallon.


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Pete Chimney on 02/11/2009 11:20 AM
I would like to make a few comments to your recent post.

Currently oil is selling for around $40/barrel (although there are many different grades of crude oil, some higher priced than others) or approximately 95 cents per gallon. But this is a sale price at the wellhead. Once a barrel of oil is produced is must be transported to a refinery, refined into products, shipped to distribution terminals, and sent to a filling station. All of these steps add to the cost of the fuel and eat into your hypothetical profits of 50 cents per gallon. The usual profit margin for oil companies is approximately 8%, that is for each $1 in sales they benefit with 8 cents profit. Companies such as Microsoft and many pharmaceuticals have profit margins in the 20-30% range.

There has been much said in the press and TV media about large oil company profits. While the dollar amount of profits are larger so are the total dollar amounts of sales. In other words the oil costs more to purchase and the prices charged are higher and so are the profits but the profit margin is still the same 8%. This year the dollar amounts of profits for large oil companies will be less, princiaply due to the price of oil being much lower and the prices of producs also being down. But the profit margin will still be around 8%.



Wow, someone else that paid attention in a college level petrochemicals history class. Mine was many years ago, but the same held true for the little to big boys back in the early days. Much of this was shown in the movie "There will be blood" when Plainview started his pipeline to increase his margin and get away from the tank car monopoly. 

Also remember the Saudi's claim that their "break even" price on a barrel of oil production is $55 or so, so the OPEC cuts are going to be part of it.

Still, the US has some of the cheapest gas. Friends in Holland are paying more than $10 a gallon, but then, the Netherlands are the home of Shell.......but they have a much higher tax level.


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## joe rusz (Jan 3, 2008)

Guys, read the fine print. Eddie said that at a profit of 50 cents a gallon the oli company would make $5.00 on 100 gallons. I'm no H&R Block (more like a blockhead), but I think the profit is $50, which should explain why the olil companies are always crying about profits. Bad accounting. 

As to why the prices are going up, in Hawaii, from where we just returned, gasoline usage is up by something like 1/3 since the crunch when the price bottomed, because now that gas is relatively cheap, people are driving more and using more gas. The oil companies sense the demand and figure they have us over a barrel (ha, ha), so they up the price because we are dumb enough to not have learned a basic lesson of supply and demand and will continue to pay it.


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

to the oil companies and big business. The bankers are spending money on trips etc. The politicians are arguing again! This is almost as bad as the LGB crisis!!


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## W3NZL (Jan 2, 2008)

Anybody notice how oil prices drop almost precipitously as the elections draw near ??? 
Then about a month after the elections the prices R on the rise again, coincidence !!!
Certainly would be a good way of removing a sticky issue from the table that neither 
party has any idea what to do about, and certainly don't want to talk about... hehe
Paul R...


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By W3NZL on 02/12/2009 3:07 AM
Anybody notice how oil prices drop almost precipitously as the elections draw near ??? 
Then about a month after the elections the prices R on the rise again, coincidence !!!
Certainly would be a good way of removing a sticky issue from the table that neither 
party has any idea what to do about, and certainly don't want to talk about... hehe
Paul R...



True, as the entire comodity market fell down with the economic downturn. Check out steel and copper while you are at it.


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## joe rusz (Jan 3, 2008)

As this is being written (3 p.m. PST) crude is down to $34.61 a barrel. So explain to me again, that part about the cost of producing oil, relative to the price of crude.


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## Al McEvoy (Jan 3, 2008)

I'm with Joe.  Pump prices here just inched upward again this week to approx. $1.91 for regular.  Looks like they aren't satisfied with 8%...


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## Mike Reilley (Jan 2, 2008)

As I said earlier...a major factor in what is going on now has to do with happened months ago...and that activity months ago has caused the crude oil storage facilities to become full. Remember when oil was $160 a barrel? Well, it got up there because people were bidding it up and buying oil like crazed individuals. LOTS and LOTS of it. When I say "buy"...in the case of oil...you're buying an "oil future"...which is volumn of oil that is to be made available for YOU to pick up 90 days in the future. If you bought oil from Saudia Arabia, 90 days after you bought it, you are supposed to have your shipper at a certain pier in the Persian Gulf to pick it up. If it was bought in the US, the oil is FOB at point in Oaklahoma and it's pumped through a pipe line to you.

Well...the 90 days has come and gone...and the month to move the oil to the US has come and gone. AND...the buyer is now stuck with $160/barrel oil...in a storage tank somewhere in the US...hoping like **** that the price on the spot market goes UP. The spot market is where the refineries and pertrochemical folks go to buy oil to refine or make fertilizer or plastic or whatever. But...we're in a recessioon so not as much oil needs to be bought on the spot market to refine or process into whatever. 

The result is that we have an interesting stalemate. The storage tanks in the US are full of the expensive crude, owned by folks that are not YET willing to take a bath selling it...but it IS taking up storage space that could be used by cheaper oil that is being bought. So...what happens when there is a shotrage?...of storage space...welll, prices to store the oil go up. That puts pressure on the owners of the $160 oil to sell it at a loss...to minimize their losses. Making this all WORSE is that the refiners are buying LESS on the spot market, because folks are driving less...and they certainly are NOT interested in buying the expensive stored oil when they don't need it.

So...the system is clogged FULL. The $35 cheap oil won't be here for 4 months...and the tanks are full of the over $100 oil. We're not going to see any price reductions for months...but by then it will be summer when gas prices always go up anyway.


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## joe rusz (Jan 3, 2008)

So how's this for an idea? Hows about a bunch of us MLS-ers throw in a few bucks, lease us a tanker and boogie on over to Saudi or whatever and buy us some of that cheap crude. Then we can sail that baby back to Texas or San Pedro or wherever--slowly, so as not to use too much fuel--and wait until crude prices start to climb. When they get near peak, we'll sail in and offer Mobil or whomever a deal and still make enough profit to buy us some swell trains. 

Or maybe I could just get me a coupla 55-gallon oil drums, throw 'em in the old Duffy Boat and start heading west--provided the batteries hold up.


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## joe rusz (Jan 3, 2008)

RE Madman's comment about bankers spending money on trips-- 

Two years ago, Allstate threw a bash on Kaanapali Beach, Maui, to reward their top earners. The company took over The Hyatt, Marriott, Westin and Sheraton, and one night, closed off the beachfront lawn of the Hyatt where a huge stage with big-screen TVs was the site of a concert by Bon Jovi. There were other concerts too, on succeeding days. Quite a blast. And I wonder why my insurance premiums are so high?


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Mike Reilley on 02/12/2009 4:40 PM

As I said earlier...a major factor in what is going on now has to do with happened months ago...and that activity months ago has caused the crude oil storage facilities to become full. Remember when oil was $160 a barrel? Well, it got up there because people were bidding it up and buying oil like crazed individuals. LOTS and LOTS of it. When I say "buy"...in the case of oil...you're buying an "oil future"...which is volumn of oil that is to be made available for YOU to pick up 90 days in the future. If you bought oil from Saudia Arabia, 90 days after you bought it, you are supposed to have your shipper at a certain pier in the Persian Gulf to pick it up. If it was bought in the US, the oil is FOB at point in Oaklahoma and it's pumped through a pipe line to you.

Well...the 90 days has come and gone...and the month to move the oil to the US has come and gone. AND...the buyer is now stuck with $160/barrel oil...in a storage tank somewhere in the US...hoping like **** that the price on the spot market goes UP. The spot market is where the refineries and pertrochemical folks go to buy oil to refine or make fertilizer or plastic or whatever. But...we're in a recessioon so not as much oil needs to be bought on the spot market to refine or process into whatever. 

The result is that we have an interesting stalemate. The storage tanks in the US are full of the expensive crude, owned by folks that are not YET willing to take a bath selling it...but it IS taking up storage space that could be used by cheaper oil that is being bought. So...what happens when there is a shotrage?...of storage space...welll, prices to store the oil go up. That puts pressure on the owners of the $160 oil to sell it at a loss...to minimize their losses. Making this all WORSE is that the refiners are buying LESS on the spot market, because folks are driving less...and they certainly are NOT interested in buying the expensive stored oil when they don't need it.

So...the system is clogged FULL. The $35 cheap oil won't be here for 4 months...and the tanks are full of the over $100 oil. We're not going to see any price reductions for months...but by then it will be summer when gas prices always go up anyway. 

_Wow, one of the best wrap ups of the situation I have seen in one place. Kudos to this post!_

_Solvent prices have dropped dramatically according to the owner of a paint mfgr I know, and the large fiberglass user I was talking with has seen resin prices drop (10% alone today) not just due to the cut in petrochemical costs, but also due to the fact that many of the boat compaines here have gone under._

_So yes, it does increase their "profit", but this may only start to offset the situation they had last year when they were locked into contract prices with their customers, and could not pass on the high materials costs, a common problem in many industries._ 
EDIT, this post is a victim of the "sometimes it works, sometimes it does not" message quote problems here....


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## SteveC (Jan 2, 2008)

Garrett

If you want to avoid that problem when quoting a reply, then after the editor screen displays...
[*] Place you mouse pointer anywhere within the "content area" where the text of the reply you qouted is and left-click.
[*] Next, use the {Ctrl+End} keyboard key combination.
[*] Then start typing you reply. 
[/list]


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## TonyWalsham (Jan 2, 2008)

Steve, 
Why not embed that information at the top of the field when using "quote"?


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By TonyWalsham on 02/12/2009 11:31 PM
Steve, 
Why not embed that information at the top of the field when using "quote"?


Like all the other train/car/gas engine/whatever forums I am on


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## SteveC (Jan 2, 2008)

Tony & Garrett

Because I have neither the access permissions, nor the requisite knowledge required to do so.


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## Ironton (Jan 2, 2008)

One thing I have not seen mentioned is the result of the previous high oil prices. When oil was $125-$147 a barrel most places put on surcharges or raised their prices. Now that oil has come down, those increases have not been removed. So delivery, order processing, and other incidental costs are still the same as when gas was at its peak. Those costs are, of course, passed on to you.

It is sort of like when copper was around $4 a pound. The cost of anything made of copper went up, of course. Now copper is about $1.5 per pound, but the increased costs are still there.


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

As for the people that trade in futures and pork bellies and so on and so on. Maybe if the y would all stop trying to outsmart the rest of us and each other, and get real jobs that produce things you can touch, which by the way are not there any more, then we would all be in the real world with tangable assets. It aways irked me that the ones who actually produce an item are not the ones who profit by it. I am reading a book about the painting of the Sistine chapel. Back in those days artists were taken for granted, just like any other tradesman of the day. Now we have people speculating on artists, and promoting an atmosphere that drives up the value of the art to unrealistic levels. Why, because that person is trying to outsmart the rest of us, and that person wants an easy way to make money. You'll notice I said make money, not make a living. I don't see what a speculator does that contributes anything to society.


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## Mike Reilley (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Madman on 02/13/2009 9:24 AM
.... I don't see what a speculator does that contributes anything to society. 




Amen!!!!!!!!!! They're blood suckers...and when they fail, they get bailed out because they bribe the Congressional "crooks" with the blood money they've sucked.


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

There was some talk of speculators having to take "delivery" of what they were buying. That would put a crimp in it. 

Lump them with the house flippers, day traders, amway, etc. If there was a get rich quick scheme that worked, we would all be doing it!


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## 3lphill (Feb 22, 2008)

I have noticed that some of my vendors are reducing their fuel surcharges. Not so much with the freight companies.


Phillip


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## xo18thfa (Jan 2, 2008)

I don't want to hear any politician say a word on the cost of gasoline. If they really cared, they would take their taxes off. Price would drop like a rock. Read in Wall Street Journal that the Fed Gov't may tack on another $0.41 per gallon to help pay for this $800B "stimulus" disaster that's going to happen. And just wait for this carbon credit tax they are talking about. Last summer was just a preview, we ain't seen nothing yet.

In the meantime, buy Exxon-Mobil stock. Enjoy the profit sharing.


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

Interesting, today oil is UP 11.62% to $37.93 and gas is DOWN 3.44% to $1.215 ..Bob, Don't get started on the Stimulus./ Spending bill..... I have heard that a whopping 4% of it will go into stimulating the economy the first year... when's the next election??


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

*Thank you Mike!!!







*


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

I believe it was on NPR that I heard a rather disturbing note about General Motors. It seems that the stimulus package has 3.2 billion dollars in tax relief for them. The way it was explained, it would do nothing to stimulate anything. Meaning it would not make jobs, be money spent, etc. To me it would seem that special interests are alive and well.


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## xo18thfa (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By JEFF RUNGE on 02/13/2009 4:53 PM
Interesting, today oil is UP 11.62% to $37.93 and gas is DOWN 3.44% to $1.215 ..Bob, Don't get started on the Stimulus./ Spending bill..... I have heard that a whopping 4% of it will go into stimulating the economy the first year... when's the next election?? 

And another thing, the price of copper was about $4.70 last summer and its dropped a mile to $1.80 something. Has the cost of Gauge 1 brass rail gone down??? No. Aluminum rail too. What is it with that?

I'm darn mad, Bob


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Becuse they are still working through the higher dollar materials on their contract.


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

And six months from now, when they are working from the cheap copper, can we expect prices on copper related items to reflect the savings enjoyed by the manufacturer, distributer, middle man, speculator?


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

It will depend from mfgr to mfgr, see my earlier post of examples where some makers had to "eat" the cost of the higher supplies last year.


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

Gas prices are dropping again, down 3 cents in the last few days. Less people working, less driving? Are we finally seeing a supply and demand adjustment?


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## Jerry Barnes (Jan 2, 2008)

Dropped 6 cents here in Nebraska.


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

Rumors of $5.00/barrel oil are floating around.


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## cmjdisanto (Jan 6, 2008)

Posted By Madman on 02/22/2009 7:05 PM
Rumors of $5.00/barrel oil are floating around. 




Yeah. Glenn Beck did a hypothetical show tonight and scenarios like this were played out as what would happen in a worst case. Interesting but reminded me of that 1983-84 HBO or maybe it was (Showtime) special about a Nuclear conflict that just broke out in the Middle east. It was done with real news casters in a very realistic and live looking format. Scared the he!! outta my mother when she walked past the TV.

Just some Hollywood versus reality in play again.



Umm, errr, uhhhh.....Come to think of it doesn't seem so far fetched today as it did in 1983. I guess neither does 5.00bbl oil. Hmmmmmmmm! Just reinforced my interest in a large investment in "brass" and the necessary item(s) to discharge it.


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## Duncan (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By cmjdisanto on 02/22/2009 8:59 PM


Umm, errr, uhhhh.....Come to think of it doesn't seem so far fetched today as it did in 1983. I guess neither does 5.00bbl oil. Hmmmmmmmm! Just reinforced my interest in a large investment in "brass" and the necessary item(s) to discharge it. 




FYI.
Be prepared for a limited availablilty of your desired "brass" components.
Been a little scarce in some places lately.
Glad .40 isn't as popular as 9mm or .45...


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## Pete Chimney (Jan 12, 2008)

At $5.00/barrel I would estimate somewhere near 60-70% of the world's oil production would become un-economic to produce. The COP (Cost of Production) is higher than $5.00/barrel for almost every field in the United States. Most producers could not long survive selling oil for less than their production costs.


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## John Allman (Jan 2, 2008)

Why are gasoline prices rising again? One infers you mean without a correlating increase in oil. 

Betcha nobody knows, because if they did, they could use that information in the markets and make trillions. That's with a "t". (billions are for congress, and millions for bankers) 

We could review the price movement of the crack spread. We could look up fancy words like contango. (or crack spread for that matter) 
But that would be much less interesting than worrying about oil at 200 USD a barrel, or 5 bucks. 

The real answer is oil companies use Jedi Mind Tricks on unsuspecting people when they overpay for gasoline. 
But I am not even remotely concerned about that. I am with Duncan, and concerned more about the availability of 45 caliber brass. (Why, I am so flexible I don't even care what scale it is!)


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## jlinde (Jan 2, 2008)

Gas prices are going up here in MA - my understanding is that there's been a slight increase in demand internationally.


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## John Allman (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By jlinde on 02/23/2009 3:00 PM
Gas prices are going up here in MA - my understanding is that there's been a slight increase in demand internationally.


you see? you proved my point. It IS a Jedi mind trick!


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## JEFF RUNGE (Jan 2, 2008)

I see OIL and GASOLINE leading the race to the top as the markets start to crawl back up. High energy prices will put a stop to any recovery the economy was headed for.....


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