# Where Are We Heading?



## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Greetings and salutations!

I stopped by the local train store in Olympia, the other day and had a discouraging discussion with the proprietor. He told me the G-scale is disappearing. He said he used to carry G-scale, but due to lack of demand and LGB's demise, he stopped carrying stuff. He also said that he was not aware of anyone in the south Puget Sound area that carried G-scale anymore. I told him of one place in Tacoma I was aware of, though I did not mention Kirkland's finest (I still breakout in a sweat when I think about all the trains there). He seemd surprised.

He also had discouraging news about the lil' scales. It was his opinion that there were very little affordable products of all scales in the market. He said that products were either too cheap or too expensive for the average enthusiast. So it would fall apart on you or you could not afford it, let alone run it anywhere. He seemed to think the market was shrinking.

I realize that despite what the "experts" say about the economy, we as a whole, are not ready to part with our greenbacks unless we appreciate what we are purchasing and can justify the acquisition. I marvel at what you all have done during the recent economic situation. However, given pricing trends, product availability, and variety, where are we going as a group? I mean I would love to see heavy weight passenger cars in a drab Southern Pacific scheme and not Daylight colors, or a black GS-4, but I digress. I can live with the status quo, but really, where are we heading as an entity? I am not sure G-scale will disappear, but I am hoping we can grow.

I am saving my allowance in the hopes I am wrong and tomorrow will bring a shiny bright future to our hobby. Hope we grow, and we can prove the nay sayers wrong. Help me out, will ya'?

Fil


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## Trains West (Oct 4, 2008)

LGB's demise ?????????

he does not have a clue if he thinks lgb is dead 


our store is alive and well and we ship if you need something


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## up9018 (Jan 4, 2008)

Most walk in stores don't carry G-Scale because it is a limited number of people who are buying it, and therefore they are "wasting" space they could fill with the more popular scales. I have found a couple of online vendors that I really like, and prefer to order from them. 

Chris


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

I think the economy, and the ability to avoid sales tax and the low overhead of an internet shop is killing the brick and mortar. 

Regards, Greg


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## Mik (Jan 2, 2008)

My 2c? The LS market expanded too fast with too much 'Me too!" and pandering to the vocal minority. Then the economy went south..... somewhere in Antarctica south... and hasn't come back further than maybe Patagonia, since. Stuck with stuff they couldn't move in like forever, they certainly wouldn't restock with more. 

Then add the superdeduper mailorder houses and feebay into the equation siphoning what few sales there were away, and I'm not surprised the brick and mortar store would throw in the towel and concentrate on higher volume stuff. Shelf space is money, and you can fit a bunch more Brio, plastic monsters, or whatever in the same space as a single LS boxcar. 

Want to increase the hobby? 1. More exposure, more MAINSTREAM exposure -The local county fair or home shows for instance, or in say a movie or TV show (preferably WITHOUT it being owned by a geeky 40YO bachelor who lives in his mom's basement and just there for comic relief). 2. Decent, durable, well designed and beta tested products at fair prices (I don't expect Mal-Wart cheap, but I won't accept Lionel LS cheezy). 3. More midsized mainstream products that appeal to both 'serious' modelers AND the 'under the Xmas tree crowd', and less oddball prototypes and high $$ monsters -- A smallish standard gauge Consolidation comes to mind. The Piko 0-6-0 is a small step in the right direction (if they'd just either delete the valve gear altogether or make it move it would be a bigger one. As-is it's just cheap looking and irritating). 4. BETTER QUALITY CONTROL, BETTER QUALITY CONTROL, BETTER QUALITY CONTROL (NOTHING turns people off faster than stuff that arrives broken, doesn't work and/or doesn't last because of a manufacturer's corner cutting to save a few nickels, that SHOULD be self-evident to anybody... or perhaps to anybody but a bean counter with a MBA and maybe the folks at A-----).


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

I would agree with Greg, Chris, and Mik. I wouldn't mind the on-line ordering, but the shipping kind of bums me out (but Scott, you are in the mix, so no worries there). Variety, exposure, and enhanced quality would help. I guess I am looking for glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel (and will accept an oncoming train), but is it there yet?


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

But, for an expensive car or loco, I think the lower price combined with the shipping is still way under what brick and mortar can charge. 

I'm in Z scale, and very few people stock it in a store, it costs nothing to ship, it's even reasonable to purchase directly from Europe and Japan. 

Regards, Greg


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## Gary Armitstead (Jan 2, 2008)

I retired in 2003. The economy hasn't affected my train life-style in the least. I planned for my retirement many years ago and so far I'm good. My homes value dropped like a rock a couple of years ago, but still today, is worth 12X what I originally paid for it. At least I don't have to worry about being layed-off. Retirement does that for you. Now I need to get back to my projects and get ready to spend some money at SWGRS in November.


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Funny you mention Z scale Greg. I visied your site a while back and made a decision then to part with my N scale stuff. It would make sense that shipping would be next to nothing, my issue started with the size. Now even HO seems small to me. 

Fil


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## Curmudgeon (Jan 11, 2008)

You seen what they are charging for plastic H0 steam? 
Or some of the H0n3 stuff? 

All scales, I gave up several years ago on "new" purchases....especially since one big factory on the other side of the pond seemed to want to corner the Model Railroading Manufacturing market, and once they had enough, prices went straight up. 

When I can but 12 old Varney freight cars for $35, get about $20 in bits to fix them, I am happy.....and they haven't made "good" Varney in 50+ years. 

Watch the discounters. 
One is "monitoring" LS.....have already dropped one line......looks like another is close..... 

The day of "cheap" LS is gone, unless you buy used, and then the evilbait folks drive that up with unrealistic minimums. 
Or, outright misrepresentations. 

On H0, one guy just bought a "Kemtron" 0-8-0......and it's a very bad condition MDC missing the pilot truck. 

Oh, well. 

Go up to that big store in Kirkland, bring two wallets......


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## Scottychaos (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Greg Elmassian on 20 Oct 2010 08:37 PM 
I think the economy, and the ability to avoid sales tax and the low overhead of an internet shop is killing the brick and mortar. 

Regards, Greg 




Just an observation on the "avoid sales tax" advantage to the internet stores..
that is probably going away..
States are working hard to make sure they get their tax revune from internet sales!
it has already happened here in NY state..
anything I mail order from amazon.com now has NY sales tax tacked on..
I havent ordered anything from an out of state train shop for awhile, so im not sure if ALL internet sales
are now taxed by NY state..but if not yet, im sure its coming soon..

(they are probably starting with the "big guns" like amazon.com, it might not apply to everyone yet..
but im sure they will figure out a way to squeeze out every penny..)

of course this adds a huge burden to internet sales shops, because soon they will have to keep track of
different sales tax for all states in the union..but thats government for you..
(people argue its really not that big a problem, since keeping track of differnt taxes is "easy" with computers..I dont know..)

but soon this "advantage" to internet sales will probably go away..
states want their money..and they will get it somehow.

Scot


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## wchasr (Jan 2, 2008)

I can say with some experience that I have spent the last 3 years travelling NY state and have stopped repeatedly at all three of the big online discount stores that all have big Brick and Mortar stores, each time with a fair amount of money in my pocket. Once specifically to buy track. NONE of them had what I wanted and I ended up leaving spending only a fraction of what I'd intended. Losing a $1K sale because there was no track in stock? Hmmmm? I was interested in some cars really only listed by an out of state dealer and when asked he has no clue when it will hit his shelves. 

As for sales taxes my Income tax prepparer has asked about internet sales for at least 3 years now in NY. That's where they are going to nail us. 

Chas


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## TonyWalsham (Jan 2, 2008)

I can tell you where this boyo is going. 
Now that the Australian $ is on par with the USA $ the cost of RCS products in the USA is much higher than it used to be. 
I must stress this is not the fault of the USA dealers. Rather it is the consequence of a cosy deal the Chinese have with the USA whereby their currency is pegged to the US $ making imports from everywhere else relatively more expensive. 

In order to stay in business I have to drop my prices. 
I can only do this by unfortunately having to eliminate my USA dealers from the loop, starting immediately. 
By only selling direct I can then offer my USA customers a 20% - 30% reduction in prices. 
The move will also allow me offer free regular Air Mail shipping to the USA. 
One other side benefit is that the USA customers are unlikely to have to pay any sales taxes when they pick up their packages from the Post Office. So they save even more. 

Don't be surprised to see this start happening with other small business as well.


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## JackM (Jul 29, 2008)

Let me toss in my own experience, or perhaps it's a lack of experience, in how people find out about large scale. I was seriously into HO as a young married guy, but everything went into boxes during a number of career moves and divorces. Six years ago I bought this house, have some discretionary income and start thinking about some kind of larger trains to run around the outside. 

I've never been to any of the big train shows usually mentioned here, only "local" shows. I never saw a local group with a realistic-looking G scale display of any kind, static or moving. Not realistic? Not even interesting! Just a big loop of track. Whoooppeeee! That's supposed to get people interested in our side of the hobby? LGB stuff; cute pufferbellies. Nothing for grown-ups. Oh, look - two buildings. Bavarian architecture - not something I identify with. 

It's only my persistant interest in trains that finally let me find some information on the Internet about this large scale stuff and learn what's available and why it might be just what I'm looking for. And eventually, on the Internet, I discovered a Large scale club 75 miles away that actually invited strangers to visit their backyard layouts, posting a big schedule for the entire summer. So I made a few 150 mile roundtrips and finally got to see what this G scale was all about. Hey, this is just what the doctor ordered! 

In other words, if you want this scale to prosper, you gotta spread the word. People won't join if they don't know it exists. And they won't know what it can be if they never see it except as a circle of track under a department store Christmas tree.


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## Trains West (Oct 4, 2008)

hobby shops do way more then sell stuff 

we stock all scales t thru g and have displays and layouts I show people how dcc works and help when the progaming went bad .. let them know what is new and when things are going to be here we also do layaway to help 

all of that will be lost if sales all go to mailorder 

we have in town a g scale club with 80 members and 35 layouts in town and 12 more just out of town plus the city built one with the club at the bio-park 

we have 5 major ho clubs totaling 100 s of members 

1 big n-track group and hoops of home layouts 

plus a small live steam group and some 7.5 inch 

and a group building the old sf loco from the park 

I am always hooking people up to clubs in town 

how well would the groups and clubs do if there was not 1 big spot to just come and talk railroading ?


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## Pete Thornton (Jan 2, 2008)

hobby shops do way more then sell stuff 
Thank heaven for hobby shops. I have two around here - Star Hobby for trains and GPA Hobbies for r/c gear and other parts. Both do most (all?) of the things Scott says. 

But they don't stock much LS stuff that I want to buy. There's just too much variety, not enough space, and not enough clients. Chas may be wandering around NY State with $$ to spend, but the cost of keeping every popular type of track just in case he comes has to be prohibitive. 

What'a happening is another "long tail" phonomenen (look it up) - there's not enough buyers and the goods are too costly for a brick-and-mortar store, but there's enough demand for a regional mail-order. Hopefully the reduced cost of a wharehouse in Nowheresville offsets the cost of shipping, so you end up paying about the same.


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## afinegan (Jan 2, 2008)

Ahh, the 2.5 year project to build the track in the park that is finally coming around, I have been hammering the local hobby stores (in which their stock is semi dwindling or they flat out dont understand what to order) to generate more interest. 

I think its already starting to work because the word is getting out, people are showing up to our club that I have no idea were they are coming from! I just hope they understand, in order to sell more, they truly need to promote the hobby!


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## John J (Dec 29, 2007)

There use to be two shops here in Phoenix. One had nothing but G scale. The other some. The owner of the first one had heart problems and sold the business. I use to go there a lot, but new owner made it into a All Scale store. Slowly he got more O Guage the G. I have not been in the store in years. So many I can't remember when I was there last. The other never carried enough to justify a trip there.

So I do my shopping at train shows, Marty's, E bay, Here on MLS, local swap meets, and word of mouth. I but mostly used. 

I am sorry to hear that Brick and Mortar are going out of busniess.

JJ


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## blueregal (Jan 3, 2008)

This is going to be just like what we experienced in the liquor business in the 90's. The only business's that will survive are the big boys, brick and mortar. Just like in our co. Jim Beam and Hiram Walker all major co.'s started buying out all the little co.'s and started what they called "consolidating" everything and scarfing up the little guys into bigger co.'s. Thus, only the fittest will survive, and the internet business with no brick and mortar will sustain, and be able to offer a better deal, with no overhead, and or brick and mortar which is more expensive to maintain! Regal


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Traditional brick and morter stores have been hurting in ALL hobbies, particularly if they do not have an online presence. Mik's description about overly expanding prior to the economy doing the Big Firework is spot on IMHO. Too many Big Boys GG1s K's and Mallets that had a limited buyership at best, they forgot that the biggest selling steam engines in the smaller scale have always been the small steamers and 4 axle GP type engines, the sad truth is that most people simply dont have room for those big monster engines and contrary to the notion that they expected everyone to completly rebuild layouts to accomodate their engines, that didnt happen to often, not with track prices doubling. So the race towards the ever "wider is better" mindset in the industry to me has been a sort of mousetrap to manufactures. Snapping their fingers. 

Repaints, I see lots of repaints, for the next couple years anyways 

I'm not surprised Bachmann has refocused on the smaller steamers and the Thomas line to get back into the base market. 

Aristo has had production "issues" going well before the financial meltdown so I expect to see similar delay in issueing new models until the econ gets better and they can get their house in order. 

USA looks to be in a holding pattern for now, same with MTH 

Piko and LGB will probably refocus bigtime on the Euro market, in the US LGB will become like it was in the 70's/80's limited number of suppliers, limited stock offerings, mostly Euro and very pricey. Piko's newest items are ALL Euro, the only reason they have any US is that they got MDCs tooling. 

Either way any things I pick up will likely be on Evilbay, or trainshows, but I already have way more stuff then I can use, and I am still downsizing, so its all kinda mot for me. 

That puts me in an interesting position of kinda looking "from the outside in" so to speak, as more an observer nowadays when I'm not dabbling in clockwork O tinplate.


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## xo18thfa (Jan 2, 2008)

Maybe things are coming to a full circle. I remember as a kids having Lincoln Logs and Erector Sets. Big piles of parts you made stuff with. My older brother introduced me to building models with tooth picks. That was alsways fun. Then came the expensive, specialized kits that made essentially one particular model. If you lost or broke a special part, the model was useless. Imagination and tinkering disappeared. Maybe a confluence of things will cause us to get back into tinkering and scratchbuilding.


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Bob, part of my dabbling with O tinplate has been to examine an d understand where the "state of the art" train layout building was back pre-war. My layout is being built to what I thought was mid-1930's level, but further study shows it would be more appropriately mid-20! I am continually fascinated by older layouts, older building technics and scratchbuilding. Call it a reaction to all the hyper-technology we are bombarded with today with constant drumming in ALL scales that to be kosher I _have_ to have DCC RC battery Supersockets pre-built pre-painted RTR EZ Track computer controlled everything this and that, the whole *craft* of the hobby is going the way of the disposable appliance, use it toss it buy another. My Tinnies still run 70 years after they were built, anyone care to say where their DCC RC supersocked Aristo or Bmann will be in 70 years? 



God,... I'm starting to sound like TOC !!!


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## ralphbrades (Jan 3, 2008)

Well after the "Handbagging" Mr Osbourne gave the UK Economy yesterday -I have to say -not very far!!! My wife's reaction was "Pass me ma shotgun Hen..." There is something distinctly menacing about the thought of a beautiful woman in pink on a pink leather chaise lounge with a pink Mother of Pearl encrusted Purdy "Under and Over" 12 bore shotgun... If Mr Osbourne came into our house I feel he might leave with the aid of a mop and sponge wrung into a bucket!!!

regards

ralph


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## Mik (Jan 2, 2008)

I apologise to the 'serious model' folks. I resisted as long as I could. The title of the thread was just tooooooooo tempting.









or----


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Ralph as we would say over here, You'all got hosed, dude, you got hosed. 

Looks like Britain will get to relive the wonderfull 80's under Iron Maggie, when crime unemployment and strife made the place one of the top 10 countries to avoid visiting. France? Nope violent strikes everywhere, Germany? Nope they just hung out the "Furher Wanted" sign. Just hope all that doesnt happen here, I know it coulld. 










What a world. Wheeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Mik (Jan 2, 2008)

Vic, Ralph.... and apologies to others. Wouldn't it be refreshing just once for a Pollie to say, "The problem is US." Instead of trying to blame whatever group their constituents are not drawn from. Then propose to cut THEIR salary, perks and staff?... A special interest group to decide that they are not in the general public's best interest and vote to disband?....... A CEO of a major corporation stand up and say, "I caused the loss", and fire himself?.... A celebrity or socialite say, "I'm a no talent hack." and go get a real job?



I can dream, can't I?


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## Greg Elmassian (Jan 3, 2008)

A follow on comment to Victor's assessment of what's going on with manufacturers, I don't think it is exactly as said: 

Aristo is making stuff, they just came out with the RDC-3, and the PCC trolley cannot be far behind. The re-issue of the Mallet and the Pacific is production. While I don't like the priorities (the Consolidation would have been my #1 choice), Aristo IS producing and selling product, so it's unfair not to note this. 

USAT is not in a holding pattern, they brought out the new caboose, reissued the PA units (which sold like hotcakes), and apparently the 60' box is any time now, and also apparently the new tank cars. They did also release a new power supply. So no new locos, but again, calling it a holding pattern is unfair in my opinion. 

I have to agree on Bachmann, seems there is a holding pattern on most new "G" stuff. 

AML seems to have slowed down, but were very successful with their 0-6-0 switcher and the new wooden reefers in 1:29 look very nice, and are just coming out. 

I agree on the comment about LGB and Piko... at least it's nice the MDC molds still exist and are being used. 

Regards, Greg


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## RGSNH (Jan 13, 2008)

Well for me personally working in 1:20.3 i have probally purhased most of what i will ever need from AMS, have a few Hartford products Kits stashed to build, and and am looking forward to scratch bulding the remainder of the Rio Grand Southern cars i need, in part because i do not expect they will ever hit the mass market. as for locomotives of the four i own two really need new gearboxes to run correctly (Bachman K-27 and Accucraft C-19) so i am not looking to expand the fleet with any other problems. I sort of saw this all coming and stocked up on what i needed based on the avalible places for me to work in my area. and i have another Sixteen years to go before the goverment will allow retirement before that hapens will probbaly have to get a lower paying labor job any way(if they still exist). as long as my LHS still sells paint, super glue, basswood and the K&S brass stuff i will be fine.

Al P.


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## Madman (Jan 5, 2008)

All of the comments have the right ideas. Personally, I sum it up to the wave of capitalism, "The greed System". About every 70-80 years on center, it suffers a cataclysmic down turn. The theory is simply that people living in the present time, whenever that may have been in our history, are too young to have remembered the last down turn personally, and therefore, do not have the first hand knowledge to avert or deal with it. History teaches nothing other than facts. If it did, we would not have the wars, money issues, etc. that we suffer through. 

So, where am I going with this? Times will improve. And when they do we will spend money again. We've seen all this before. And like I mentioned earlier, Capitalism matches human nature. Whether we like it or not, we are greedy. We hoard things. Whether it be money, food, or trains. 
One benefit to those that have the means to do so would be speculation. We all know that property was bought up, during the Great Depression, and held until the market went back up. Those of us that can afford to gather trains now, can hold them in the hopes that someday we can sell them at a profit. Or at least get our enjoyment from them now, and sell them in the future and still break even.


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Greg, I tend to hang you sage advice and wisdom. I don't know why, but you usually make sense to me ( please take that as a compliment, you are totally 3-0). When I obsessed in the lil' scales 35 years ago, I swore off Bachmann, as to me it was cheap and cheesey. Now, 99% of my G-scale rolling stock and motive power is Bachmann Spectrum (granted, I have procrastinated so long with my garage moment, I really have't done much to test their durability). I don't blame the other manufacturers for holding off or sitting on the fence. 

Trouble is I feel greenbacks burning a hole in my piggy bank, but I want something that isn't offered or apparently available. I could "settle" and buy on-line, or bring two wallets to the big ol' store in Kirkland, that causes my heart to palpitate, or just bite the bullet and wait this out. My horseback guess is ultimately, I will be disappointed due to limited selection. I fear I may have over committed to 1:20, when the 1:29, or 1:32 offerings might have done the job. 

The kicker is the mortar and brick are getting few and far between, on-line may be fine, if the shipping/taxes don't get ya' first. If where we are, is the best it will be, then are we okay? 

Fil


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## Mike Reilley (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By work4fil on 20 Oct 2010 08:06 PM 
Greetings and salutations!

....I realize that despite what the "experts" say about the economy, we as a whole, are not ready to part with our greenbacks unless we appreciate what we are purchasing and can justify the acquisition. I marvel at what you all have done during the recent economic situation. However, given pricing trends, product availability, and variety, where are we going as a group? ... I can live with the status quo, but really, where are we heading as an entity? I am not sure G-scale will disappear, but I am hoping we can grow.... 

Fil

Well...I guess I'm not in this pessimistic camp. Yep...the economy stinks. Yep...lotsa folks are outta work. Yep...new products aren't just pouring down on us. Yep...the manufacturers are consolidating. Yep...there seems to be a pause occurring in our hobby...but I'm hoping we are not doing it to ourselves.

I see the sales of our equipment moving in the same direction I see the rest of the stuff I buy. It's moving out of small brick and mortar business...onto the internet...or into big box stores. Everything I buy has seen that shift...heck, I bought my last car using the internet...in 30 minutes. Shopping for a home these days...well, you're going to be using the internet. Food...supermarkets are being replaced by Super Walmarts...and the little groceries are going out of business. I get my pharmacy prescriptions drop shipped to me. I remodeled my house two years ago...and virtually all of the electrical and plumbing parts were selected and bought off the internet...to save money...a lot of money...and a whole lot of my time.


So, I think the movement towards big box retailing and internet sales is just something our hobby needs to get used to. It means that manufacturers need to learn better how to sell to big box stores...they don't even try now as best I can see. When's the last time you saw the Bachmann starter set for sale at Christmas at a COSTCO or Walmarts...or, how about an LGB starter set (if they're still really in business)? It means that manufacturers need to learn how to set up AND MAINTAIN stocking data bases...so that drop shipping becomes a reality in our hobby...like it is for other consumer goods. Right now...there are some drop shippers...but I still hear stories about "stuff is on the boat"...and then it is late. Drop shipping means YOU KNOW where your stuff is...and you can ship it...tomorrow. Manufacturers need to improve a lot here...and I'm NOT just talking about the ones that make engines or track.


Sellers...well, I think they need to learn how to sell on the internet. Simply put...that means you do more than post a single stock photo of the 3/4 view of a car or engine...taken by the manufacturer on your sales page. Effective internet sales means you gotta do more. Some say, you need to create an "experience" for the viewer...the buyer. Well that's tough in our hobby. But, imagine you were trying to sell perfume...I think that would be even harder. Close up videos with sound of an engine working would be a start at providing "an experience"...as marketing guys say. High resolution photos of cars and buildings...taken in a way that allows a person on the web to see details...maybe zoom in or around. I mean...many of the models now have incredible detail...but you can't see it if all you have is the stock 3/4 view photo. Perhaps its time for the manufacturers to provide "an experience" at the conventions they go to as well. How many times have we seen just racks and racks of engines...or worse, just piles of boxes .... but none moving on a track. I recall that EVERYTIME Cliff of Accucraft brought a live steam engine outside at the BTS and ran it on the live steam track...he drew crowd...of live steamers. He built "an experience". 


An area of marketing in our hobby that is almost completely nonexistent is demonstrating HOW all the advanced electronics work. To date, I have NOT seen any manufacturer or dealer put together any kind of demo of all this new electronics. Heck...I go to the county fair, and there are hawkers there telling me how great a $300 pressure cooker is...and they cutting and cooking...and my wife and I are eating what's cooked...and we come home with that $300 cooker...or a mop...or a ladder. I've never seen any explanatory "hawking" at any show or convention...unless you've signed up for one of the back room discussions...in advance...which means you need to know ahead of time what you don't know that you need to know. The way it's done now...is that the BUYER has to walk up to a vendor and ask him specific questions. It seems that sellers have forgotten how to sell in our hobby. How many times have you walked into a hobby shop...and NOT been asked if someone could help you?


Now...what can WE do? Well, if you believe that big box store sales and internet sales are the inevitable way of the future, then we, the buyers, need to get on that bandwagon. That means, we need to learn how to buy stuff when there is little available support from "store personnel". You don't get that support in big box stores...nor on the internet. That means we need to become smarter buyers...and part of that is done by demanding more information, sharing more information (through clubs and forums like MLS), and being critical of the information quality. We all need to try to get to a major show...to show the manufacturers that we are interested...and to provide them an opportunity to "show their stuff". I regret the demise of the 120pointme web site...because that site focused on one thing...letting me know, in some detail, about all the new products in 1/20.3 scale. It served ME. I didn't have to go hunting for information. We need more of that kind of site...or...more manufacturers putting press releases..good ones...on MLS. 


And...if you're worried about increasing costs, well, the way business is moving reduces cost. That's good for us IF our hobby's sellers and manufacturers get on board. Getting the middleman OUT of the business loop is good for the manufacturer AND customer. That's why drop shipments SHOULD cost less. That's why Walmart and COSTCO sell for less....stuff goes straight from the manufacturer to them...then to you.


We'll climb out of this recession someday. Employment rates will go up someday. New products will get produced...someday. I just think we will all need to get used to a new way to buy stuff for our hobby...someday. Don't let that someday be the day you go to the hobby shop...and find it closed.


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## markoles (Jan 2, 2008)

Mike,

What an outstanding post. Great job! 

A few years ago, a local train guy started a hobby shop. He carried all scales, but stocked a lot of the small parts. Wheels, couplers, stuff like that. He was pretty good on the prices of other stuff, but he couldn't compete, and I believe he's basically dropped large scale. But, the point is he was trying to cater to the needs of existing large scalers. He even went so far as to install a small garden railroad in front of his store. But, the last time I saw it, it was in sad shape. He is still in business as a hobby shop and sells a lot of O gauge. I go occassionally to get paint. I have recently discovered a new shop in Lebanon, PA where I work. The guy here has some new old stock large scale, but has a ton of the small bits and pieces, like the hand drill set I needed to get a sheared screw stub out of its hole. 

I've been hearing doom and gloom for large scale as a whole for about 2 years now. Maybe for new product, that is the case. I don't really see it that much because I am only a consumer and a spectator. What growth I have seen is in the electronics end, new sound cards, better control systems. Also, there is a trend toward smaller prototype rolling stock, like those aristo 2 bay hoppers and the USA center coupola caboose. For me, the main inhibitor is the cost of track. I want to grow my railroad, but I have to plan much more carefully than before. 

On another front, I am encouraged by the local support for trains. In central PA, trains and railroading are a major part of the culture and history. People are always interested in seeing what I've done in my backyard and the neighbor across the street bought a large scale train set last year for her grandkids to run. Another friend is building a garden railroad for his wife, and has a large pond finished. So, what I see is people planning a lot better and not impulsively buying something they see in a window. Dollar for dollar, I think large scale is still cheaper than O scale. A bit more expensive than HO, but as TOC pointed out, the gap is narrowing.

I think each of us could answer the question of Where are we heading? differently and still be correct. For me, I am not getting out of large scale any time soon. I have time on my side and will do what I have always done, find a way to aquire what appeals to me. 

Have fun guys and take care of your trains, I might be buying them from you some day!! 

Mark


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Well said Mike! 

And thank you as well to everyone else who have chimed in and helped me straighten out my head on our future. 

It is easy for someone like me to forget that we live in an evolutionary environment. Things will change. You all give me a great sense of hope (I still dream of heavy weight SP cars in anything other than Daylight colors). This site has been invaluable to me and keeps me enthralled with our hobby. 

You are all incredible! 

Fil


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

To me their are three issues, one being the economic downturn, which is just something everyone and the hobby will have to endure till things get better. The second though was the overexpansion of the hobby prior to the bubble popping, and that expansion was in the wrong direction with too many "me too" products at extremly high prices that catered to a realitivly small group of hobbiest, at the expense of basic affordable products. It took Piko to produce an affordable 0-6-0T but it may have been too late, I have seen far less posts from newbies and those few that I have seen are entering are building what I consider fairly complex and expensive layouts, IOWs those starting today are well off enough that the capital expense of building isnt that offsetting. That brings us to the third issue was the doubling of track prices, which has probably done more to kill off interest in this hobby than anything else. I thought track was pricey at $4 a foot, but when it hit $8 a foot a couple years ago I was done buying track, period. Its stabilized since but its definetly quite a sticker shock for anyone looking to get in. 

To be truthfull NO ONE took full advantage of EPLs demise to try and fill the gap while they were being reorgzanized under Marklin. They were all to busy catering to the "Wider is better and more expensive" crowd. Lets face it, EPL was the face of large scale too many, they offered a great relaible line of entry level sets that were small enough for most any household, and varied enough to draw attention, Bachmann's Davenport sets have only just come out, Aristo had what I consider the bargain of the century with their starter sets that included a Basic Train Engineer controller but I NEVER saw that set for sale ANYWHERE. Add in the demise of the affordable OSH and Costco Bachmann Xmas sets (those companies fault not the mfrs) once all the NOS LGB stuff was bought up by the collectors and horders after the big firework, the overall presence of LS diminished from the hobby. All the 'smoke and fury" over the demise of EPL and the appearance of Newquida did nothing to help the hobby either. Alot of damage was done there, yet in the end nothing changed, EPL is still dead as a doornail, and NewQ is still shipping, now around the world thanks to all the free publicity  

I think we are in a holding pattern, with the mfrs waiting out the recession, waiting to see what direction the hobby will take. Personally I see it _ generally_ heading in the same direction it was before the crash, namely into two camps: 

Camp 1, the mainliners with 

1. More scale fidelity like the smaller scales, more proto based layout designs and operation. 
2. More demand for large mainline dismals, which being cheaper to make are more likely to get made 
3. more demand for general mainline steam locomotives, but being so much more expensive to make will be either limited to small production runs and being very expensive, or inexpensive Piko or Chinese knock off versions. 
4. more modern era rolling stock. I think this is a real divide in the mainline camp, there seams to be far more demand for modern era diesels and rolling stock than for older mainline steamers and 40' rolling stock typical in the 40's and 50's. 

and Camp 2, the narrow gaugers: 

1. and it will be 1/20.3, sorry but without LGB being a major player in the US market, all the 1/22.5ers like me are going to lose this one eventually; 
2. again more proto layout design, more scale fidelity, but at a cost of more expensive, shorter run products like the K or the Mallet, we may get some chinese knock offs but I dont see alot of major players outside of Bmann and Accucraft. 
3. LGB will make some reissue items but lets face it, they are now a more minor player in US LS market, and other than the stuff they already have tooling for I feel they will stay more in the Euro-centric for any new items for the time being, Piko also. 

But I see the Mainliners being 2/3's of the US market, becuase thats where the modelers from the smaller scales are overwhelmingly coming from.


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## Cougar Rock Rail (Jan 2, 2008)

To be truthfull NO ONE took full advantage of EPLs demise to try and fill the gap while they were being reorgzanized under Marklin 

I don't think that's quite true. Piko jumped in and has grown their business in G scale dramatically...apparently their new Harz camel is flying off the shelves. Kiss has been doing his best to ramp up to fill the void on the RhB line and sells out of everything he makes. Even LGB/Maerklin is introducing new products and apparently their latest Rp-w rungenwagen has sold out completely and they are planning a second run. So while there is a lot of doom and gloom for those relying on someone else's factories in China for production, for those that are wise enough to control their own production and quality they seem to weathering the storm quite nicely. 

Keith


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## Mik (Jan 2, 2008)

Vic, your assessment overlooked one fairly large group. The 'around the christmas tree', and 'look what gramma bought!' crowd. They aren't ON the forums, until they run into a problem (and then they are gone again). They don't BUY the big expensive stuff, but ARE the bread and butter of the manufacturers.... Unfortunately, those manufacturers seem to want to kill their golden goose, or at least squeeze it until it can't breathe. Since EPL folded starter set prices are way up, selection is way down, and quality is "who cares?"..... The new 'face' of large scale to the masses is Lionel's movie tie in crap, New Blight, and Scientific................ Yay us!

Need I point out that those who pretty much sneer at the starter stuff and STILL push the 'wider is better' agenda aren't helping much either?


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## jgallaway81 (Jan 5, 2009)

As a middle-of-the-roader, I think both the starter sets & bigger is better is the right way to go.

As I see it: a customer buys one, maybe two starter sets... one per kid/themselves. Starter sets are the intro, the draw in, the initial hook. The bigger stuff is the hole in one, the sinking of the hook in the fish'es mouth. Having said that, it makes no sense to me to continue LGB's 4' starter set pattern. At the VERY minimum, they should go to 5'd, and possibly 6'd/3' radius. 


Bachmann has both the Thomas and the new starter sets. Do they still run the Big Hauler? Could they swap out an indie and two hoppers? How about an 0-4-0 and a couple log cars?


USA had the mighty moe... is it still made even? An NW2/S4 with two of the medium tank cars. A Moe with a 40' and a 50' box. 


MTH doesn't really have any small engines does it? 

Aristo does fairly well with the starter sets: The 0-4-0 and a couple coaches or a boxcar and a caboose. The Lil Critter could be packaged with a covered hopper and a tank car. The 0-4-0 would be set with two or three of the new 2-bay coal hoppers. The Centercab with two tank cars, or two reefers.

The trouble is, there are currently... nine carriers in the United States: BNSF Railway, Conrail, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern, Amtrak, Kansas City Southern, Canadian National & Canadian Pacific.. oh, and Union Pacific. Add to that the few Santa Fe and BN engines left.


Kids today have never heard of Rock Island, New York Central, Rio Grande, Chicago, Burlington & Quincy, Central of New Jersey, Southern, **** even the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe is an unknown name. They know BNSF, CSX, NS & UP... remember, 2009 was the TENTH ANNIVERSARY of the mergers which ended the rain of the Consolidated Railroad Corporation... Big Blue has been gone for eleven years already.


Even if they made the starter sets in modern names, making it so that the track was usable instead of forfeit when the consumer moved outside would be a big benefit.


Perhaps a feature that the MFGs could team with... NMRA maybe? Have 3x5 trading "cards" (5x7 is the two-per-page size, right?) included with each car. Maybe have the UPC mailed to the NMRA or some other entity for such a card? Send in the UPC from a Conrail SD45 and get 1 of 9 cards to make up a 9-card set with info on Big Blue.


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

So do you think we, as an entity (say 1:20 through 1:32), could bring the suppliers into our line of thinking? More attractive starter sets. I mean Thomas may be okay for a kid, but that line is not going to float my boat (sorry, the Euro stuff doesn't make me want to spend money). The draw I get from trains is the tie to my youth. The Atchinson, Topeka, and Santa Fe was my railroad as a kid, then the Southern Pacific, but I would settle for Northern Pacific, just because. But you're right, kids now days have no attachment, let alone memories, to the fallen flags. 

I would hate to think what the NMRA might do to us. I know that topic has been discussed a little bit (I agree with dave on it BTW). I just think there is a market within us and around us, that has not been serviced the way it should. 

Fil


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## Spule 4 (Jan 2, 2008)

Interesting reading....and speculation. 

Ask your local dealer how business is and what is selling, you might be surprised on both accounts.  Two dealers on my most recent trip (one in a large metro area, the other in a town of 24K) are doing well, business is picking up, and customers are spending. One did complain about suppliers tho, and senses that another big name in trains may be heading to toiletville shortly due to erratic supply, not getting paid for warranty work, etc, problems. 

Many of the "big money" hobbies are not hurting, because many of the median to higher income folks are not those that got hit by the economy.


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Posted By Cougar Rock Rail on 22 Oct 2010 11:49 AM 
To be truthfull NO ONE took full advantage of EPLs demise to try and fill the gap while they were being reorgzanized under Marklin

I don't think that's quite true. Piko jumped in and has grown their business in G scale dramatically...apparently their new Harz camel is flying off the shelves. Kiss has been doing his best to ramp up to fill the void on the RhB line and sells out of everything he makes. Even LGB/Maerklin is introducing new products and apparently their latest Rp-w rungenwagen has sold out completely and they are planning a second run. So while there is a lot of doom and gloom for those relying on someone else's factories in China for production, for those that are wise enough to control their own production and quality they seem to weathering the storm quite nicely. 

Keith 

Maybe in Europe, but certainly not here in the US LS mass market, which was why I stated that both Marklin and Piko would likely concentrate on the Euro market in the future, thats where their core business is. While the LSC forum has had alot of Piko threads, Piko's starter set is not doing well at all over here, the one dealer I knew who had them ended up breaking the sets apart and selling the bits individually to try and recoup his costs. The 0-6-0 routinely sells for bargain basement prices on Ebay which is a real shame because its a great little engine once the wheel paint issue is taken care of.


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## ohioriverrailway (Jan 2, 2008)

There's one realy good LHS in town. Not much G scale stuff, but lots of paint and plastic. The K&S display looks like it hasn't been refilled in years. George has a couple of big drawers of G scale parts, and the buyer is free to rummage to see if what he wants is in there. If not, they'll order it for you.

I picked traction to model as the need for cars would be low and most of the power units would need to be scratch-built. The same for the buildings -- with some patterns (Piko stuff mostly) and enough moulds and resin (and saws and Band-Aids) I made about 18 feet of bulding fronts. Those were definite economy moves, as was the decision to keep the operation to less than 150 feet of track. I'd have loved to build 300 or 400 feet of railroad, but it just wasn't going to happen.

Like a couple of the previous posters, I'm retired (my wife just retired) and disposable income is at an all-time high. But I'm at the age where I'm starting to downsize by trying to shed the things I got 10 years ago when enthusiasm was high and my knees actually worked. About the only major purchase in the near future would be if Aristo ever got the PCC into production then I'd like a set of bricks for a project I startred about 18 months ago.

Hopefully this is just cyclic and things will improve. I heartily agree that Thomas, clunky under-the-tree sets and other starter items are still necessary if you're going to get the younger generation interested.


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## Randy Stone (Jan 2, 2008)

It seems to me that we've heard this cry before numerous times, The Sky is falling! The Sky is falling! 
99% of the time it's some dealer saying G scale is doomed and why? 
Because of LGB's problems. 
I've seen it in the brick and mortor shops and I see it on Ebay still today. 
Most LGB collectors have been willing to pay retail for their LGB trains. 
G Scale is dead to these dealers because they don't have a lot of LGB to offer at retail pricing and so to them, they have nothing to sell. 
A local brick and morter sold only LGB trains in G scale. For months they were out of LGB track. 
They could have put some Aristo Craft or USAT track in stock. 
But who would have bought it? 
Not the clientel they had built. 
There G scale customers only were interested in LGB. 
So, not only did they have nothing to sell the LGB customers, anyone coming in the store looking to buy their first G scale train, seen very little if any product to buy also. 
A lot of people may buy a starter set, but what's the first thing most buy next? 
Extra track. 
Why get into a hobby that has no extra track to buy? 

Ask any hobby shop owner what G scale stuff they preffered to sell and if they are truthfull, most will say LGB. 

As for the brick & morter stores, I'm sad to see them go even if their prices were generally too high. 
Let's face it, the local hobby shop has all the small stuff we need. 
Small stuff that is not economical to buy on the internet by themselves. 

So, if LGB trains was your world, be it collecting, running or selling, the hobby ain't what it used to be and may never be it again. 
So get over it. 

As for the rest of us, there is plenty of stuff on the market for us to buy. 
Maybe not everything we want, but other than a few people with unlimited funds, most of us can find something we need or want on ebay or at any train show we go to. 
We may not be able to afford what we want, but it's out there. 

Out of approximately 100 pcs of rolling stock including locos, only 25% were bought new and they were bought at great savings below retail. 
I didn't buy to collect. I bought to run. 

So lets run some trains! 

Randy


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Thanks Randy, you made me feel better about my lot. Collecting might be nice, but really, I just want to run and/or watch trains. 

Fil


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## Nicholas Savatgy (Dec 17, 2008)

Everything is fine Fellas

Sit back, have a beer and enjoy what you have.


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## vsmith (Jan 2, 2008)

Randy its not so easy for some mom and pop shops to just "switch" from one brand to anther. It has to do with the distributors they have usually made long term agreements with about supply, for example if a Hobby Shop has an agreement with well known Big Distributor to supply their stock, if Brand X which the Big Distributor was the exclusive supplier, goes out of business and now their is no Brand X coming, if the shop wanted to switch over to carry Brand Y instead, but Brand Y is NOT carried by their Distributor, by even attempting to go outside of that distributing agreement to get supply they can imperil supply of ALL material from the Distributor, so the shop is screwed out of any alternate product to Brand X. HK Walthers is reknown for the "Scorched Earth" policy of cutting off all supply to any shops get uppity and actually try to get replacement supply from another distributor or even direct from the manufacturer. More than one shop has gone out of business due to no longer being able to get products XYZ that Walthers no longer carries, could not supply an alternate product that the public wanted and their business just dried up.


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## Randy Stone (Jan 2, 2008)

Vic, that's what you call putting all your eggs in one basket. 

Years ago, I was managing a small automotive parts house and I had a distributor that wanted me to go 100% with them. 

I asked the salesman if he'd put it in writing that they would always have the product I needed and that the price would always be at or below the competition. 

Funny how he wouldn't do that. 

As for Walthers, I'm sure there are other distributors to deal with. 

If Walthers is the sole distributor for certain companies and works the business as you say, then shame on the manufacturers that deal with them. 

Randy


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## rdamurphy (Jan 3, 2008)

One thing that I don't think anyone has brought up is shelf space. One G boxcar takes as much shelf space as a couple of dozen HO scale cars, or a hundred N scale cars. Caboose Hobbies in Denver has an entire aisle of G and Fn3, plus some, yet they have much less stock than any other scale. Even the O/S scale aisle has more product, just because of the amount of space G takes up. Heck, an N scale railroad could be built on the deck of a Warrior River 40' Fn3 flat car! 

Robert


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## Ray Dunakin (Jan 6, 2008)

Brick-and-mortar hobby shops are only useful for common supplies such as glues, styrene, wood, etc. It's the one area where they have an advantage over online dealers, simply because it's convenient to be able to get such stuff when I need it, rather than waiting for shipping. So I want the LHS to stick around and I give them as much of my business as possible. 

But for the big ticket items, they can't possibly compete with online. First of all is the price -- money is far too tight to not take advantage of every discount I can get, and the online dealers are always way cheaper than anything local. Second is choice. A local shop can't stock everything, or even most items. This is especially true of something like large scale trains, which are very expensive, take up a huge amount of space, and have a limited market. So even if there was a local shop that sold LS, chances are they still won't have what you're looking for.


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## work4fil (Jan 4, 2008)

Robert, 

I would hope that supply and demand would dictate how much shelf space a retailer would allocate. I think we have all dabbled in the Lil' scales at some point, yet the draw is for large scale for all the right reasons. I mean try running N scale in the yard for grins. I am hard pressed to follow why a retailer would pass on stocking Large Scale products, when they command the prices we are willing to pay. I am willing to order anywhere (including Caboose, or any of the other fine retailers here or elsewhere), assuming I can find what I am looking for (again I emphasize the Southern Pacific heavy weight passenger cars in any color but daylight, or bloody nose f units). I would just like to see that we are moving toward a future with a wide selection of products we can all enjoy. 

Cheers, 

Fil


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## rdamurphy (Jan 3, 2008)

It's going to take time. Realistically, if you want 1/29, there are two manufacturers. If you want 1:20.3, 2 large makers, and some smaller ones. 1/32nd, basically two also. Look at how many manufacturers are in HO! How many different brands of locomotives can you buy in HO or N? 

So, everyone who is doing Fn3 is buying from about 4 or 5 sources. How many of us are in Fn3? Now, if you look at it historically, when the K-27's came out, they FLEW off the shelf. Even at the price-point they were at. What about the Shays? Hmm, not so much... No offense to EBT modellers, I'd love to see some of those also, or as someone mentioned a C-19, D&RGW and EBT variations could be built from the same model. Coming? Who knows? What about a C-16? Used by about four different railroads. D&RGW had nearly a hundred!, RGS, Montezuma lumber, Silverton Railway, and a bunch of lumber railroads, and the C&S locos were very close. In addition to two main variations (Grant and Baldwin), their appearance changed radically from the 1890's though the 1950's, and a couple were even converted to standard gauge (figure that one out!). 

Would a K-36/37 sell as well as a K-27? Probably not, but what about a K-28? 

What I find completely mystifying is why they build a 2-6-6-2 that isn't a Uintah Mallet? Why build a diesel "critter" that isn't D&RGW #50? 

Just some food for thought, aka my two cents worth...


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